Key Highlights

● RBOB gasoline futures held near $3.26 a gallon, up 0.34% on the session.

● Futures are down 5.90% over a month but up 77.37% over a year.

● Russia's small diesel deal and Ukraine strikes keep traders focused on supply risks.

● About 12.1% of global refining capacity was offline as of September.

US gasoline futures traded around $3.25 a gallon on Wednesday, 14 October 2026, holding most of their recent losses as traders continued to weigh the impact of fuel supplies from Russia. According to market data, the RBOB Gasoline contract was quoted at $3.2613 (USD) per gallon, up $0.011, or 0.34%, from a previous level near $3.2503.

The small daily gain sits within a softer one-month picture. Futures are down 5.90% over the past month but up 77.37% over the past year. Those percentages imply a price of roughly $3.47 a month ago and about $1.84 twelve months earlier, so RBOB sits about $0.20 per gallon below last month's level and $1.42 above its level a year ago.

Russian Diesel Deal Looks Small

Russia had agreed to supply diesel to global markets to help lower fuel prices. Experts believe the deal announced by President Trump is very small, equal to about 10 days of total US demand or slightly more than a single day of global demand. The modest scale has kept traders focused on the wider supply picture.

Ceasefire Hopes Remain Unsettled

Prospects of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire also remain in focus. Russia continued to attack Ukrainian energy facilities, contrary to President Trump's claims of an immediate truce. Both Ukraine and Germany have pushed for strike bans to include Ukrainian electricity infrastructure as well as Russian refineries. Attacks on tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz also remain risks to feedstock supply.

Refining Capacity Offline

Pump prices remain elevated, with 12.1% of global refining capacity offline as of September, although prices have eased in recent weeks. Refinery outages limit how quickly gasoline supply can respond to changes in crude costs and demand.

What RBOB Represents

Each RBOB contract covers 42,000 gallons of unfinished gasoline blendstock designed for blending with 10% ethanol, and it is deliverable in New York Harbor. The contract is the main hedging tool for the US downstream sector and a baseline for wholesale terminal prices. Since mid-September, regulations have allowed refineries to move to higher-volatility winter-grade gasoline, which can include cheaper butane. That seasonal shift typically exerts downward pressure on autumn futures.

Forecast and Risks

Market forecasts point to about $3.3858 (USD) per gallon for the fourth quarter, which is $0.1245, or roughly 3.82%, above the latest quote. The outlook depends on whether Russian supply arrives, whether tanker routes stay open and how quickly offline refining capacity returns.

RBOB Outlook After the Pullback

Gasoline futures have given back part of last month's level but remain far above year-ago prices. With forecasts pointing modestly higher, the next move will turn on Russia-Ukraine developments, Gulf shipping security and refinery restarts.