Key Highlights

  • RBOB gasoline traded near US$3.22 per gallon during today's session, down 2.32%.
  • Gasoline is about 76% higher than a year ago but 3.04% lower on the month.
  • Marathon reported a US$36.33 per barrel refining and marketing margin in the second quarter.
  • Ampol's first-half Lytton refiner margin was US$28.26 per barrel.

RBOB Gasoline Slips Below US$3.22 a Gallon

US RBOB gasoline futures traded near US$3.22 per gallon during today's session, down US$0.08, or 2.32%, according to market data. They are down 1.74% on the week and 3.04% on the month, but 87.99% higher year to date and 76.12% higher than a year ago, so the market is much dearer than in 2025 without having moved decisively over the past month.

What Traders Are Weighing

Ukraine cited continued Russian strikes on energy infrastructure, tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz still threatened supply, and Gulf of Mexico producers were restoring offshore output after Hurricane Isaias. Gasoline is less directly tied to Russian exports than diesel, so any link is indirect, mostly through crude oil prices and general sentiment.

Heating oil traded near US$4.80, roughly US$1.58 above gasoline, which shows that distillates have been priced well above gasoline. At US$3.22 per gallon, a 42-gallon barrel of gasoline equates to about US$135.

Why Gasoline Behaves Differently From Crude

RBOB is the wholesale blendstock that becomes petrol after ethanol is added. Its price reflects crude costs plus the margin to turn crude into gasoline, which depends on refinery runs, inventories, imports and exports, and seasonal demand. In autumn, US demand usually eases after the summer driving season and refiners shift towards cold-weather fuel specifications.

Refiners With Gasoline Exposure

Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) reported second-quarter net income of US$5.1 billion and a refining and marketing margin of US$36.33 per barrel. Its gasoline yield was 1,439 thousand barrels per day, down from 1,526 a year earlier, crude capacity utilization was 94% and throughput about 2.9 million barrels per day. It reports third-quarter results on November 3. Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) operates 14 refineries and reports on October 22.

Shell (LSE:SHEL) refines and markets fuels as part of an integrated business, with results due October 29 at 07:00 GMT. Ampol (ASX:ALD) runs the Lytton refinery and a large Australian fuel network, with a first-half Lytton refiner margin of US$28.26 per barrel, and it expects annual cost synergies of US$65 million to US$80 million within two years from the EG Australia acquisition. Imperial Oil (TSX:IMO) and Suncor (NYSE:SU) combine oil production with refining and retail fuel sales, so higher crude can help upstream earnings while squeezing refining margins.

Calendar: Refiner Results on October 22, October 29 and November 3

Upside risks include further tanker incidents near Hormuz, attacks on Saudi or Russian energy infrastructure and more storm disruption in the Gulf of Mexico. Downside risks include a confirmed energy truce, faster restoration of offshore output and weaker demand if higher fuel costs squeeze consumers. Refiner results on October 22, October 29 and November 3 will include commentary on gasoline demand.

In short, gasoline is lower today while the longer-run picture stays elevated, and refiners that hedge product sales or buy crude on different terms can see results diverge from the headline futures move.