Key Highlights

  • Natural gas traded near US$3.20 per MMBtu during today's session, up 0.90%.
  • EIA recorded an 85 Bcf storage build for the week ending October 2, above expectations.
  • LNG feedgas averaged 17.1 Bcf/d so far in October, down from 18.0 Bcf/d in September.
  • EIA forecasts a Henry Hub average of US$3.48 per MMBtu for 2026.

Natural Gas Edges Higher Near US$3.20

Natural gas traded near US$3.20 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) during today's session, up US$0.03, or 0.90%, according to market data. It is up 2.81% on the week and 10.55% on the month but remains 13.14% lower year to date. On Monday it had slipped 1.1% to about US$3.18.

Storage and LNG Feedgas

The Energy Information Administration recorded a storage build of 85 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending October 2, above the 79 Bcf expected. Feedgas to US LNG export terminals averaged 17.1 billion cubic feet a day so far in October, down from 18.0 in September, with a delayed Freeport LNG train restart and Cove Point maintenance blamed. Lower 48 output averaged 111.5 Bcf/d, below the 113.3 Bcf/d record of August and September.

Hurricane Isaias led producers to shut in about 1.3 Bcf/d offshore, a limited effect because the Gulf of Mexico accounts for roughly 2% of marketed output. A dip in feedgas can pull Henry Hub lower even when overseas buyers remain eager.

The Official Outlook

EIA's October outlook puts working gas at 3,523 Bcf at the end of September and projects a 328 Bcf October build to 3,850 Bcf on October 31, 2% above the five-year average. It forecasts a Henry Hub average of US$3.48 per MMBtu for 2026 and US$3.16 for 2027, with dry gas output of 112.20 Bcf/d in 2026 and 116.13 Bcf/d in 2027.

LNG exports are about 17.6 Bcf/d this year, rising to 18.6 Bcf/d in 2027. Henry Hub averaged US$2.93 across June to August, 6% below the previous summer, and US gas output hit an all-time high in July led by the Permian Basin. EIA's winter outlook says households heating mainly with natural gas should spend less than last winter, while heating oil households face a 21% rise.

Producers and Exporters

Expand Energy (NASDAQ:EXE) is a major US gas producer. Its second-quarter output was about 7.48 Bcfe/d at a NYMEX average of US$2.90, and realized gas was US$2.42 per Mcf before derivatives and US$2.90 including them. Tourmaline (TSX:TOU) is Canada's equivalent, with 594,198 barrels of oil equivalent a day, about 81% gas, an AECO benchmark of C$1.66 per thousand cubic feet, and about 1,014 million cubic feet a day hedged for the rest of 2026 at C$4.97. About 220,000 MMBtu a day is exposed to international prices.

Cheniere Energy (NYSE:LNG) buys US gas for liquefaction, so lower Henry Hub reduces its feedstock costs. In Australia, Woodside (ASX:WDS) and Santos (ASX:STO) are LNG producers rather than Henry Hub producers. Woodside's first-half result cited Middle East conflict lifting LNG and oil prices while it builds Louisiana LNG, 28% complete, and Santos cited lower realized LNG prices.

Calendar: Cheniere on October 29 and the November Contract Expiry

Cheniere reports on October 29 before the market opens, with a call at 11:00 ET, and EIA's next outlook is scheduled for November 10. The November contract expires around October 28 under CME rules, after which December becomes the front month.

In short, storage only 2% above average leaves room for surprises. Colder weather, a recovery in LNG feedgas or smaller builds could support prices, while record production, large injections or further LNG outages could add pressure.