Key Highlights

● US Natural Gas fell 1.62% to $2.90 per MMBtu in Friday's session.

● Gas is down 4.85% on the week and 29.63% from a year ago.

● US storage rose 80 Bcf last week, above forecasts for a 75 Bcf build.

● LNG feedgas flows averaged 18.5 Bcf a day in October, up from 17.9.

US natural gas fell 1.62% to US$2.90 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in Friday's session on 30 October as recovering domestic output and a larger-than-expected storage build outweighed strong LNG demand. The decline matters to producers such as Expand Energy (NASDAQ:EXE), whose Revenue moves with Henry Hub even after hedges.

The fall of 4.8 cents leaves gas down 4.85% on the week and 2.18% on the month. It is 21.26% lower since the start of the year and 29.63% below a year ago. Europe moved the other way: EU gas rose 5.87% to €103.67 per megawatt-hour, a reminder that US gas is trading on domestic supply, not on global tightness.

Supply Is Winning the Argument

The US market is well supplied. Output across the Lower 48 states has recovered to about 113.3 billion cubic feet (Bcf) a day, and the rig count of 603 for the week ended 23 October is 53 above a year earlier. Year-to-date dry gas output is more than 4% above last year. Producers are delivering more gas into a market with little reason to hurry.

Weather is not helping demand. Forecasts for milder-than-normal temperatures through 13 November are expected to limit heating demand, and temperatures for the week ended 24 October were 17.5% warmer than the 30-year normal on a heating basis. Residential and commercial Demand is down 0.8% month to date.

Storage Moves Further From the Danger Zone

The Energy Information Administration reported an injection of 80 Bcf for the week ended 23 October, above forecasts for a 75 Bcf build and ahead of the previous week's 77 Bcf. Total working gas stands at 3.724 trillion cubic feet, 1% above the five-year average and 3.8% below a year earlier. The five-year comparison matters most: stocks are now above normal, which removes some of the support that came from earlier deficits.

The regional picture is uneven. South Central is the only region below its five-year average, and the Mountain region has the largest shortfall against last year, at 9.5%.

LNG and Mexico Provide the Floor

Exports are the main support. Average flows to the nine major US LNG export terminals rose to 18.5 Bcf a day in October from 17.9 Bcf a day in September, and feedgas hit a record 19.9 Bcf a day on 18 October. Pipeline exports to Mexico reached a record 7.7 Bcf a day on 13 October. Month-to-date total demand is up 4.7% on last year, with exports up 7.2% and power-sector use up 5.3%.

That demand is why prices are falling slowly and not sharply. Strong export pull offsets some of the weight from production and mild weather.

What It Means for Producers and Buyers

Expand Energy guides to 2026 production of 7.45 to 7.55 Bcf of natural gas equivalent a day, up from 7.2 Bcf a day in 2025, so it is adding volumes into a lower price. Its revenue is sensitive to Henry Hub, moderated by any hedges. EQT Corporation (NYSE:EQT) is another large Appalachian producer with similar price sensitivity.

Cheniere Energy (NYSE:LNG) operates LNG export terminals and buys gas as feedstock, so it is exposed to Henry Hub as a cost, although much of its revenue comes from long-term fees that reduce day-to-day price effects. For consumers and power generators, cheaper gas is a benefit.

Gas Watch: Next Storage Report, Weather and LNG Feedgas

The EIA publishes its next weekly storage report on Thursday 5 November. Weather forecasts for early and mid-November, LNG feedgas levels and the December contract's trading range near US$3 are the main items to follow. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration favours above-normal temperatures across much of the northern United States through winter, which would limit heating demand.

Prices could firm if cold weather arrives earlier than expected, if LNG feedgas returns to record levels or if production falls. They could ease if output stays strong, storage builds remain larger than expected or LNG plants face outages.