Key Highlights

  • Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran posted the biggest monthly increases, while Kuwait’s output rose 16%.
  • Brent moved back above $90 per barrel as Strait of Hormuz traffic slowed sharply.
  • The surge lifted Brent crude above the $90 threshold, while U.S. At the same time, tanker crossings through the Strait of Hormuz plunged, hinting at a fragile foundation for the recovery.

The surge lifted Brent crude above the $90 threshold, while U.S. At the same time, tanker crossings through the Strait of Hormuz plunged, hinting at a fragile foundation for the recovery.

Gulf Crude Export Volumes Rebound to Pre‑War Levels

Kpler calculated a daily average of 12 million barrels, whereas Vortexa’s estimate peaked at 13.6 million barrels. The discrepancy reflects differing methodological approaches but both confirm a return to pre‑conflict shipping levels. Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran led the month‑on‑month gains, with Kuwait’s output climbing 16% alone.

The combined uplift underscores a coordinated effort among Gulf producers to restore market share after earlier disruptions. Analysts note that the increase, while sizable, may mask underlying capacity constraints that could surface if geopolitical tensions intensify. The rise therefore signals a short‑term supply boost that could be quickly eroded.

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Slows, Threatening Export Sustainability

Analytics firms observed a pronounced decline in tanker passages through the strategic waterway, a development that Kpler analyst Johannes Rauball warned could force producers to curtail output. A reported incident where a vessel was halted after Iranian strikes exemplifies the heightened risk environment. The United States is actively targeting Iranian and Iran‑linked ships, while Iran retaliates against vessels from U.S.-allied nations, compounding the uncertainty.

Reduced traffic means fewer slots for loading crude, potentially throttling daily export volumes despite recent gains. Consequently, any further escalation may reverse the modest recovery and tighten global oil supplies.

Energy Markets React: Brent Surges, WTI Holds Near $84

The rebound in Gulf shipments coincided with Brent breaching the $90 per barrel mark, reflecting renewed optimism about supply availability. Energy traders have adjusted positions to account for the temporary lift in exports, but the volatility surrounding Strait of Hormuz operations keeps risk premiums elevated. The price spread between Brent and WTI narrows when Gulf flows stabilize, yet any disruption could widen the gap swiftly.

Thus, market participants must balance the fleeting export improvement against the persistent threat of maritime interference.

Outlook: Export Levels Hinged on Regional Tensions

Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh indicated that the next days and weeks will clarify how sustainable the current export level is under renewed dual blockades. The interplay between diplomatic negotiations and on‑the‑ground naval actions will dictate whether daily volumes can stay near the 12‑13.6 million‑barrel range. If tanker traffic remains constrained, producers may be compelled to lower output, supporting higher crude prices.

Conversely, a de‑escalation could preserve the supply surge and temper price gains. Investors should watch for any official statements from the United States or Iran regarding Strait operations as the primary catalyst for future market direction.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.