Key Highlights

● Chicago ethanol for October delivery stood at $2.14 a gallon on September 30, 2026, down 0.23% in delayed trading.

● Weekly ethanol production fell 21,000 barrels a day to 1.007 million, while stocks dropped 818,000 barrels to 23.865 million.

● Green Plains posted second-quarter Net Income of $67.1 million against a $72.2 million loss a year earlier.

● Section 45Z tax credits supplied $58.7 million of Green Plains’ adjusted EBITDA, so policy support drives much of earnings.

Chicago ethanol futures for October 2026 (CUV26) stood at $2.14 a gallon on September 30, 2026, down half a cent, or 0.23%, in delayed trading. Plant output eased and stocks fell in the latest weekly data. Green Plains (NASDAQ:GPRE), the Omaha-based ethanol producer, reported a sharp Margin recovery in the second quarter.

A Range-Bound Market

A separate reading put the contract at $2.05 a gallon on September 30, down 1.21%, with a yearly gain of 6.51%. The nine-cent gap likely reflects different contract months or snapshot times, and neither quote is an official settlement. Over the past week the contract fell 1.8%, and over the past month it rose 3.1%, which suggests a range-bound market.

Chicago ethanol is quoted in US dollars per US gallon, whereas Brazilian and European prices are often quoted per cubic meter or per liter, so comparisons with other benchmarks require conversion.

Maintenance Season and Inventories

Weekly federal data show production of 1.007 million barrels a day, down 21,000 on the week but up 12,000 on the year. Stocks fell 818,000 barrels to 23.865 million, which is 4.8% above a year earlier, and blending rose 7,000 barrels a day to 914,000. Output had already slipped to 1.028 million barrels a day in the prior report, linked to seasonal maintenance as plants wait for new-crop corn. Iowa plant margins stayed positive.

Earlier in September, net purchases by refiners and blenders hit a more than five-year high even as gasoline supplied fell, while plant margins eased as corn prices rose. Exports stood at 122,000 barrels a day in the week reported on September 23. Renewable fuel mandates and Tariff action on Brazil in July are background influences on the market.

Margins and Tax Credits Across the Industry

Green Plains reported second-quarter net income of $67.1 million against a $72.2 million loss a year earlier. Its ethanol crush margin was $95.1 million, versus $26.3 million. It sold 160.7 million gallons at 88% utilization across eight plants. Adjusted EBITDA of $93.3 million included $58.7 million from Section 45Z production tax credits, so policy support is a large part of earnings.

REX American Resources (NYSE:REX) reported net income of $34.9 million, or $1.06 a share, compared with $7.1 million. Gross Profit was $53.3 million, including roughly $18.4 million of 45Z credits. It holds $379.5 million of cash with no bank debt, and aims to expand its One Earth Energy plant from about 150 million gallons a year toward 175 million by the end of 2026.

Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) is a refiner with an ethanol segment. Its second-quarter release shows ethanol Operating Income of $318 million, up from $54 million, though refining dominates group earnings. Suncor Energy (NYSE:SU) owns the St. Clair Ethanol Plant in Ontario, with capacity of 400 million liters a year, blended into Petro-Canada gasoline. In the UK, Ensus, a Subsidiary of Germany’s CropEnergies, restarted on March 26, 2026 after about 100 million pounds of UK support, while Vivergo stopped operating in August 2025.

What Could Move Ethanol Next

Prices could firm if plants stay in maintenance longer than expected, if blending Demand keeps rising, or if exports recover from 122,000 barrels a day. A poor corn harvest would raise feedstock costs and could push producers to cut output, particularly those without hedges or tax-credit support. Prices could weaken if production rebounds after maintenance while stocks, already 4.8% above last year, keep building.

For producers, margins depend on the gap between ethanol and corn prices as well as tax credits. A fall in ethanol prices would hurt less if corn costs also eased, and more if tax credits shrank. The October contract expires on October 30.

Weekly ethanol data are published on Wednesdays. The items to watch are production as plants return from maintenance, stocks against last year, exports and blending, new-crop corn prices, the progress of the harvest, and third-quarter results from Green Plains and REX.