Key Highlights

  • Spire Global (NYSE:SPIR) fell about 12% in after-hours trading on November 10, 2026, after third-quarter results came in below consensus and it lowered its full-year outlook.
  • Third-quarter Revenue rose 42% to about USD 18.0 million from USD 12.7 million, or 77% excluding the maritime Business sold in 2025, while the adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to USD 8.6 million.
  • 2026 revenue guidance was cut to USD 75 million to USD 80 million from USD 75 million to USD 85 million, below the roughly USD 80 million consensus, and the adjusted EBITDA loss guide is USD 27.4 million to USD 32.4 million.
  • The company won two NOAA awards worth USD 33.2 million and USD 28 million and gave a preliminary 2027 revenue range of USD 96 million to USD 106 million.

What Disappointed Investors

Spire Global collects data from a constellation of small satellites, including weather, radio occultation and aircraft tracking data, and sells it to government and commercial customers. Third-quarter revenue of about USD 18.0 million represented solid growth, up 42% year on year and 77% excluding the maritime business it sold last year, but both revenue and adjusted EBITDA fell short of analyst expectations. The bigger issue was guidance. Narrowing the 2026 revenue range to USD 75 million to USD 80 million removed the upper end of the previous outlook and placed the midpoint below consensus. The company also guided to an adjusted EBITDA loss of USD 27.4 million to USD 32.4 million, wider than the roughly USD 24.2 million loss the market expected, and said it would no longer provide non-GAAP Earnings Per Share guidance. Spire Global (NYSE:SPIR) shares fell about 12% after hours.

The Positives in the Report

The results were not without encouragement. Gross Margin improved to 46% from 37% a year earlier, and the GAAP loss narrowed to USD 0.52 a share from USD 0.61. The adjusted EBITDA loss improved to USD 8.6 million from USD 11.8 million. Government Demand is building: Spire won a USD 33.2 million NOAA task order for radio occultation data, which helps improve weather forecasts, and a USD 28 million contract for a hyperspectral microwave sounder. Remaining performance obligations, a measure of contracted future revenue, stood at USD 175.4 million. The Balance Sheet shows USD 78.0 million of cash and marketable securities and no debt, giving the company room to execute without immediate funding pressure. The preliminary 2027 revenue range of USD 96 million to USD 106 million implies growth of roughly 25% to 35% from the 2026 midpoint.

What to Watch

Investors in Spire Global (NYSE:SPIR) will focus on the timing of government contract revenue, which can be lumpy and is often the reason small space companies miss quarterly forecasts. Conversion of the USD 175.4 million in contracted obligations into revenue, and progress toward breakeven on adjusted EBITDA, will determine whether the guidance cut is a timing issue or a sign of weaker demand. Space small caps have reported mixed results this week, with a satellite imaging company posting revenue up 342% while others faced pressure from rising interest rates. A US government funding resolution in the coming weeks also matters, since federal agencies are major customers. Delivery on the 2027 outlook and any new NOAA or defence awards would be the main catalysts for a recovery in the shares.

Where Things Stand

Spire Global (NYSE:SPIR) fell about 12% after hours on November 10, 2026 after third-quarter revenue of about USD 18.0 million and adjusted EBITDA missed forecasts and it trimmed 2026 revenue guidance to USD 75 million to USD 80 million. Margins improved, NOAA awards and USD 175.4 million of contracted revenue add support, and a debt-free balance sheet offers flexibility. Contract timing is the key watch point.