Key Highlights

  • Adjusted EPS of USD 0.23 edged past the consensus estimate of USD 0.22, while GAAP diluted EPS was USD 0.07.
  • Net sales of USD 2.192 billion were nearly flat and topped the consensus estimate of USD 2.17 billion.
  • Adjusted EBITDA fell to USD 289 million from USD 383 million, with Margin at 13.2% against 17.5% last year.
  • Net Debt declined to USD 5.183 billion from USD 5.331 billion at year end 2025, yet Leverage reached 4.8x.

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE:GPK) reported third quarter 2026 net sales of USD 2.192 billion, against USD 2.190 billion a year earlier and above a consensus estimate of USD 2.17 billion. Volume and mix added 1%, or USD 19 million, while price subtracted 1%, or USD 15 million. Adjusted EPS of USD 0.23 compared with a consensus estimate of USD 0.22 and USD 0.58 in the prior year quarter. GAAP Net Income was USD 22 million, or USD 0.07 per diluted share, versus USD 142 million, or USD 0.48 per diluted share, a year earlier.

Cost Inflation Pulled Adjusted EBITDA Down by USD 94 Million

Adjusted EBITDA of USD 289 million compared with USD 383 million a year earlier, and the adjusted margin of 13.2% compared with 17.5%. The company attributed the decline to USD 83 million of Commodity input and operating cost inflation, USD 15 million of unfavorable price and USD 3 million of lower volume and mix. Net performance contributed USD 2 million and foreign exchange added USD 5 million. Cost of sales rose to USD 1.885 billion from USD 1.756 billion, and net interest expense increased to USD 69 million from USD 53 million. The margin still expanded sequentially for the second consecutive quarter. CEO Robbert Rietbroek said the quarter showed progress on near-term priorities, pointing to cost reduction and productivity initiatives, and said the resulting Operating Leverage helps capture benefits from commercial excellence efforts and price improvements in the fourth quarter and into 2027, with a return to EBITDA growth targeted for next year.

Full Year Guidance Centers on USD 8.6 Billion of Sales

The company guided 2026 net sales to approximately USD 8.6 billion, adjusted EBITDA to approximately USD 1.05 billion and adjusted EPS to approximately USD 0.65. Adjusted Cash Flow is guided to USD 600 to 700 million, compared with USD 169 million in 2025, and Capital spending to below USD 450 million. Management listed raw material and energy cost volatility, pressure for lower cost products, the company debt level, currency movements and the timing of U.S. federal income tax payments among the risks to these projections. Nine month adjusted cash flow reached USD 314 million, an increase of USD 646 million from the first nine months of 2025, and the company said this supported debt reduction from year end 2025.

Guidance Against Nine Month Actuals and Leverage

Full year adjusted EBITDA guidance of USD 1.05 billion set against USD 768 million through nine months leaves USD 282 million for the fourth quarter, below the USD 289 million earned in the third. Adjusted EPS guidance of USD 0.65 against USD 0.46 through nine months leaves USD 0.19. Adjusted cash flow of USD 314 million through September covers about half of the USD 600 to 700 million range, and capital spending of USD 287 million compares with the sub USD 450 million ceiling. Net leverage stood at 4.8x against 3.8x at year end 2025 and 3.9x a year earlier, while total debt of USD 5.520 billion compares with USD 5.688 billion at the end of the second quarter.