Key Highlights

  • Ferrari (NYSE:RACE) raised 2026 guidance: net revenues of about 7.60 billion euro, adjusted EBITDA of at least 2.97 billion euro, and adjusted diluted EPS of at least 9.68 euro, up from 9.45 euro.
  • Second quarter net revenues were 1,938 million euro, operating profit was 605 million euro at a 31.2 percent margin, and diluted EPS was 2.62 euro.
  • First-half shipments were 6,802 cars against 7,087 a year earlier, a decline of 4.0 percent, simple arithmetic on two reported numbers.
  • The third quarter report is due on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with a webcast at 9:00 a.m. ET, and the screener consensus for EPS is 2.32 per share.

What Ferrari Needs To Show On November 3

The comparison base is the third quarter of 2025, when Ferrari (NYSE:RACE) shipped 3,401 cars and reported net revenues of 1,766 million euro, EBITDA of 670 million euro at a 37.9 percent margin, operating profit of 503 million euro at 28.4 percent, net profit of 382 million euro and diluted EPS of 2.14 euro. The screener consensus of 2.32 is about 8.4 percent above that base, simple arithmetic, and the screener does not state its currency. Ferrari reports in euro, so the figure is probably euro, which is unverified. The webcast starts at 2:00 p.m. GMT, which is 9:00 a.m. ET.

Guidance Arithmetic And The Shipment Question

Ferrari manages scarcity: it allocates cars against an order book, and personalization and mix can lift Revenue per car even when units slip. In the second quarter, shipments of 3,366 were about 3.7 percent lower than 3,494, yet net revenues rose about 8.4 percent from 1,787 million euro, both simple arithmetic on reported numbers. First-half diluted EPS was 4.95 euro, so adjusted guidance of at least 9.68 euro implies roughly 4.73 euro or more for the second half, about 2.37 euro per quarter, though reported and adjusted bases differ. First-half industrial free Cash Flow was 929 million euro against a full-year floor of 1.55 billion euro.

Bull Case, Bear Case And Risks

In a bull case, Ferrari (NYSE:RACE) ships more than 3,401 cars, holds operating Margin above 28.4 percent and raises guidance again, which would put EPS above the roughly 2.37 euro quarterly run rate. In a bear case, shipments fall again, mix or personalization disappoints, and guidance is only reiterated. As an illustrative scale, a 5 percent share move equals about USD 3.5 billion on the USD 69.58 billion market Capitalization shown on the screener, which is unverified. No options-implied move or verified peer print was found. Risks include trade tariffs, currency, the cost of the electric transition and dependence on a small, wealthy buyer base.

Where Things Stand

Ferrari (NYSE:RACE) did raise 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least 9.68 euro even though first-half shipments fell 4.0 percent, which tells investors that pricing, mix and personalization are carrying Earnings while volumes are managed. The balance of evidence favors a steady report, since guidance already implies about 2.37 euro per quarter in the second half against a screener consensus of 2.32. The next catalyst is the November 3, 2026 call, where shipment guidance, the order book and Tariff commentary matter more than a single quarter's EPS. This is a preview, not a forecast of results.