Key Highlights

  • Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) reached USD 833 million in the third quarter of 2026, compared with USD 667 million in the third quarter of 2025, on strong volume, pricing and lower realized gas cost.
  • Net Earnings were USD 436 million for the quarter, and last-twelve-month net earnings were USD 2.2 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of USD 3.8 billion over the same period.
  • Nine-month adjusted EBITDA was USD 3,008 million versus USD 2,072 million, and the 2026 figure includes a USD 170 million gain from a litigation settlement.
  • Capital returned to shareholders over the last twelve months was USD 1.3 billion, with USD 1.1 billion left in the current USD 2 billion repurchase authorization.

Pricing, Volume and Gas Costs Lift Quarterly EBITDA

CF Industries (NYSE:CF) published its third quarter financial results presentation on November 4, 2026, and an 8-K says a conference call to discuss the results is set for November 5. The nitrogen producer reported adjusted EBITDA of USD 833 million, up USD 166 million from a year earlier, and net earnings of USD 436 million. Management attributes the gain to strong volume, pricing and lower realized gas cost. The materials show the company operated at 97% of available ammonia capacity over nine months, with a recordable incident rate of 0.10 per 200,000 work hours. The materials reviewed do not include earnings per share, a price reaction or a numeric guidance range, and the company points instead to a mid-cycle EBITDA estimate of about USD 2.9 billion, rising to about USD 3.3 billion by 2030 if its strategic initiatives are delivered.

Cash Conversion, the Canada Deposit and Buybacks

Last-twelve-month cash from operations was USD 3.1 billion and free Cash Flow USD 2.0 billion, a 53% conversion of adjusted EBITDA, or 61% excluding USD 306 million of deposits to Canada tied to a United States and Canada Transfer Pricing matter. Management notes those deposits will be applied to tax and interest ultimately due once bilateral government procedures conclude. The company's share count has fallen 58% since 2010. Completing the remaining USD 1.1 billion of repurchases would leave roughly 139 million shares outstanding, by the company's own estimate, with authorization running through 2029.

Blue Point Build-Out and Yazoo City Restart

The company says global nitrogen Supply and Demand remain constructive, citing European curtailments, geopolitical supply disruptions and the permanent shutdown of 35% of Trinidad ammonia capacity. Construction has begun on the Blue Point low-carbon ammonia complex, where total project cost remains about USD 3.7 billion and production is expected to start in 2029. The Yazoo City complex is expected to resume operations in the first half of 2027. For CF Industries (NYSE:CF), risks include Natural Gas volatility, tariffs, cyclical pricing, project cost overruns and the funding of its joint venture. Expected CF-funded Capital spending is about USD 950 million, including about USD 400 million for Blue Point.

Where Things Stand

Mostly through price, volume and cheaper gas, not one-off items. CF Industries (NYSE:CF) lifted quarterly adjusted EBITDA by USD 166 million to USD 833 million, while the nine-month figure includes a USD 170 million litigation settlement gain. Cash generation is strong but the Canada deposits trimmed conversion to 53%. Next markers are the November 5 call, Yazoo City returning in the first half of 2027, Blue Point progress toward 2029 ammonia output and continued use of the USD 1.1 billion remaining repurchase capacity.