Crypto trading slump, workforce cuts, and lowered expectations define Coinbase's first-quarter report — but a short-term stock bounce looks unlikely

Key Highlights

  • Coinbase EPS expected at just $0.06, vs. a $2.49 loss last quarter
  • Revenue forecast at $1.49bn, down 27% from Q1 2025's $2.03bn
  • Trading Volume estimated at $222.9bn, nearly half of Q1 2025's $393bn
  • Robinhood's crypto revenue already fell 47% — a direct warning for COIN
  • 14% workforce cut announced Tuesday signals sustained pain, not a brief dip
  • 23 of 38 analysts still rate COIN a Buy; average price target $239.27

When Coinbase Global steps up to report its first-quarter 2026 Earnings after Thursday's closing bell, it will do so under conditions that few at the company would have chosen. A prolonged slump in Cryptocurrency-trading/">Cryptocurrency Trading, a workforce reduction that rattled employees earlier this week, a damning preview from a close rival, and a stock that has lost 13.6 per cent of its value this year have combined to create one of the more fraught earnings moments in the company's short history as a public company. The question is not simply whether Coinbase will meet expectations tonight — it is whether the results, and more importantly the outlook, can persuade investors that the worst is finally behind it.

Coinbase Q1 2026 Earnings: What the Numbers Show

The headline figures are sobering. Analysts polled by FactSet expect Coinbase to report revenue of $1.49 billion for the first quarter of 2026, down from $2.03 billion in the same period a year ago — a decline of more than a quarter in twelve months. Earnings Per Share are forecast at just six cents, a steep fall from the 24 cents posted in Q1 2025, though a meaningful improvement on the $2.49-per-share loss recorded last quarter. Trading volume, the engine of Coinbase's core Business, is projected at $222.9 billion — roughly half the $393 billion the platform processed in Q1 2025, and well below the $271 billion seen as recently as Q4 2025.

Behind those numbers lies a cryptocurrency market that has struggled to recover. Bitcoin, whose price movements set the tone for the entire industry, remains more than 30 per cent below the peak it reached last October. A partial recovery of around 20 per cent over the past month has provided some relief, but not nearly enough to restore the trading volumes that drove record revenues in prior periods. Coinbase stock closed Wednesday at $195.40, down sharply from its highs.

Why Robinhood's Results Are a Red Flag for COIN Stock

If the market needed a live preview of what Coinbase is likely to report, Robinhood Markets provided one last week. The brokerage, which has aggressively expanded into crypto in recent years, disclosed that its cryptocurrency trading revenue collapsed 47 per cent in the first quarter. The result immediately reframed expectations across the sector.

Dan Dolev, analyst at Mizuho, was blunt in his assessment. "After haunting HOOD last week," he wrote, "we believe the Crypto El Niño is likely heading towards COIN's 1Q26 results." Mizuho carries a Neutral rating on Coinbase. The analogy is apt. Just as El Niño disrupts weather patterns across entire regions regardless of local conditions, a sustained crypto downturn hits every platform exposed to spot trading, regardless of how well run they are individually.

The comparison between Robinhood and Coinbase is imperfect — Coinbase has a broader institutional client base and more diversified revenue lines — but the core exposure to retail trading activity is similar enough that Robinhood's numbers function as a reliable early warning for what Coinbase is about to disclose.

Coinbase Layoffs 2026: What the 14% Workforce Cut Really Signals

The most consequential pre-earnings development came from inside the company. On Tuesday, chief executive Brian Armstrong announced that Coinbase would cut approximately 14 per cent of its global workforce. Armstrong cited advances in artificial intelligence as a contributing Factor, suggesting automation is enabling the company to run leaner. The cuts are significant but perhaps less surprising than their timing — disclosed just two days before a quarterly earnings report.

Companies rarely choose to announce major operational changes in the days immediately preceding results unless they wish to control the narrative. Reading between the lines, the layoffs suggest Coinbase's Leadership has concluded this is not a brief cyclical correction but a sustained downturn requiring a structural response. For the market, that is a sobering signal. It implies that the revenue pressure visible in this quarter's numbers is unlikely to reverse quickly.

Will Coinbase Stock Go Up After Earnings? The Short-Term Outlook

This is where the analysis turns less comfortable for bulls. The honest answer is: probably not, at least not immediately — and the setup is more asymmetric to the downside than many retail investors appreciate.

The expectations game is what drives short-term price action. With Coinbase already down 13.6 per cent year-to-date and analysts having spent weeks cutting estimates, a result that simply meets the lowered consensus — six cents EPS, $1.49 billion revenue — is unlikely to move the stock higher. Markets do not reward companies for meeting expectations that have already been discounted into the share price. To trigger a meaningful post-earnings rally, Coinbase would need to beat consensus estimates materially, or deliver forward guidance that surprises to the upside.

The conditions for that beat exist but are narrow. If trading volumes in the final weeks of Q1 proved stronger than modelled, or if Stablecoin and subscription revenues came in meaningfully ahead of estimates, the stock could bounce. A confident and specific tone from Armstrong on the Earnings Call — particularly around April trading volumes or regulatory progress — could also shift sentiment quickly.

But the downside scenario carries more weight. A miss on revenue, a volume figure below $222 billion, or cautious guidance for Q2 could send shares materially lower. This is structurally a sell-the-news setup rather than a buy-the-dip opportunity for short-term traders.

Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue and the Long-Term Bull Case

The more important story, and the one that will define Coinbase's medium-term trajectory, is whether its non-trading businesses are growing fast enough to matter. The company's stablecoin Partnership — centred on USDC with Circle — has become an increasingly significant revenue contributor. Unlike spot trading fees, stablecoin revenues are steadier, less cyclical, and more predictable, particularly in an elevated Interest Rate environment where yields on stablecoin reserves translate directly into income.

Coinbase has also pushed into institutional custody, blockchain infrastructure, and subscription services — all carrying longer sales cycles and lower margins than retail trading, but offering a more durable earnings base. These businesses have not yet fully offset core trading Volatility, but they represent the credible long-term thesis that keeps 23 of 38 FactSet-tracked analysts at a Buy rating, with an average price target of $239.27 — implying roughly 22 per cent upside from current levels.

The regulatory environment, long a source of legal cost and uncertainty, has also shifted meaningfully in Coinbase's favour under the current administration in Washington. That is a genuine tailwind, even if it plays out over quarters rather than in tonight's numbers.

Coinbase Earnings Tonight: The Bottom Line

Tonight's report will not answer the biggest questions about what Coinbase is becoming. But it will reveal how deep the current downturn truly runs, how effectively management is controlling costs, and whether diversified revenues are growing with enough momentum to change the Investment narrative.

For short-term traders, the risk-reward skews negative heading into the print. For long-term investors, the bull case — regulation, stablecoins, institutional adoption — remains structurally intact. The gap between those two time horizons is precisely where tonight's earnings call will be most closely watched.

Coinbase Global reports first-quarter 2026 earnings after the market close on Thursday, May 7, 2026. This article does not constitute investment advice.