Key Highlights

  • Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) releases fiscal fourth quarter results on Monday, November 2, 2026, at 1:30 p.m. PT, with the call at 2:00 p.m. PT, which is 5:00 p.m. ET.
  • Published consensus is about USD 113.3 billion of Revenue and USD 1.99 of earnings per share, against July 30 guidance of 9 to 11 percent growth, or USD 111.7 billion to USD 113.7 billion.
  • Gross Margin was guided to 47 to 48 percent, including about 1 point from Tariff refunds, versus 50.1 percent in the June quarter, which carried about 2 points of refunds.
  • Apple closed October 30 near a USD 5.03 trillion market value, the largest in the market, and its shares are up about 27 percent this year, which raises the bar.

What Apple Guided and What Is Expected

On its July 30 call Apple guided total revenue growth of 9 to 11 percent, iPhone growth in the mid-teens held back by Supply constraints, and a currency headwind of roughly 2.5 points. The year-ago quarter was USD 102.5 billion, so the USD 113.3 billion consensus implies about 10.5 percent growth, simple arithmetic on two published numbers. That puts consensus near the top of the guided range. In the June quarter, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) reported revenue of USD 109.4 billion, up 16 percent, and Earnings Per Share of USD 2.02 against USD 1.89 expected. The USD 1.99 consensus sits below that June figure, which included the tariff refund benefit, so investors will compare Underlying Profit as much as the headline number.

Memory Costs and Margin Pressure

Memory is a core input in every iPhone, Mac and iPad. Chief Executive Tim Cook called the market a 100-year flood on memory pricing in June, and IDC puts memory costs up roughly 350 percent since last year. Apple expects costs to keep rising through at least the end of the year. Tariff refunds added about USD 0.11 to June quarter earnings per share, but the September guide includes only about 1 point of refund benefit, so underlying margin faces more pressure. Rising component costs can be offset by price increases, a richer product mix or supplier concessions, so management commentary on pricing will matter as much as the reported number. The gross margin line is therefore likelier to decide the reaction than the revenue headline.

Risks and the Market Backdrop

Intel's PC warning on October 30 tied a longer slowdown to memory prices, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.9 percent that day. For Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), the risks are a December quarter forecast below the roughly USD 153.4 billion consensus, iPhone supply limits, and further cost inflation. Loop Capital estimates 79 million iPhones in the December quarter against 85 million for the Street. No verified options-implied move was available at publication, and results may differ from guidance. Services revenue and the installed base are other levers, though no verified segment consensus was available.

Where Things Stand

Beating a USD 113.3 billion consensus that already sits near the top of guidance is possible but not assured, so the answer for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is that it depends. Clean upside needs revenue at or above USD 113.7 billion, gross margin inside 47 to 48 percent and a December quarter forecast near USD 153.4 billion. With a USD 5.03 trillion valuation and a 27 percent gain this year, even a good result may leave little room.