US Futures Edge Higher as Oil Eases; Fed Decision and Tech Earnings Take Focus

Index Update

US stocks ended mostly lower on Friday as surging oil prices and Middle East tensions heightened Inflation concerns ahead of the Fed’s rate decision. The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Nasdaq finished flat and the Dow dropped 653 points. Financial stocks and major technology companies declined, while concerns over debt-funded AI spending weighed on weekly sentiment. Despite Friday’s chipmaker recovery, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded weekly losses of 1% and 2.1%, respectively, while the Dow gained 296 points.

Market Movers

Among the top-performing stocks of the session AI OKTO CORP. surged 182.82%, while ClearOne, Inc. rallied 69.27%. On the losing side, BUUU Group Limited. fell 90.00%, while Davion Healthcare Plc. declined 48.50%, making them the weakest performers during the trading day.

Commodities Update

Brent crude fell toward USD 115 per barrel and WTI eased toward USD 101 on Monday, retreating from recent highs as Middle Eastern crude exports recovered to near prewar levels. However, Supply risks persisted amid concerns over renewed strikes against Iran, President Trump’s pending decision on negotiations or military action, and escalating Saudi-Houthi clashes, with potential Iranian retaliation against Israel and the UAE adding to regional uncertainty.

Gold traded near USD 4,000 per ounce and silver around USD 54 on Monday, hovering near lows of more than three months and eleven months, respectively, as investors weighed Middle East tensions and upcoming Central Bank decisions. Elevated energy prices reinforced inflation concerns and expectations of higher interest rates, pressuring precious metals despite geopolitical uncertainty. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady this week, with a potential December increase, while the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are also anticipated to keep rates unchanged.

Macro Updates

The US dollar index eased to around 101.6 on Monday as investors awaited the Fed’s policy decision, PCE inflation data, preliminary Q3 GDP and major technology earnings. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady before a potential December increase, while central banks in the Eurozone and Japan are also likely to maintain rates. Canada and New Zealand are expected to tighten policy amid inflation pressures.

Bonds Commentary

The US 10-year Treasury Yield held just below 5% on Monday after three consecutive weekly declines, as concerns over AI spending supported safe-haven bond demand. Investors awaited megacap technology earnings, preliminary Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation data for economic clues. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady this week, with a potential December increase, while the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are also anticipated to leave rates unchanged.

Futures Update

US stock futures rose as easing oil prices lifted sentiment ahead of major earnings, economic releases and the Fed’s policy decision. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, while Dow futures added nearly 180 points. Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon advanced ahead of earnings, while Meta climbed on plans to raise up to USD 95 billion through stock sales to fund AI investments. Nvidia, Broadcom and AMD also gained, while Verizon fell 0.8% after Revenue missed expectations.

Selling momentum carried over into Friday, driving broad-based losses across Wall Street with heavy declines concentrated in blue chips. The S&P 500 slipped 0.52% to 7,623.68, pressing directly into key structural support between 7,550 and 7,600. After opening at 7,637.18 and tapping an intraday high of 7,660.15, sellers seized control to print a session trough of 7,612.07, leaving price trapped below descending 21-day (7,713.05) and 63-day (7,657.78) EMAs. The technical setup points to ongoing distribution as the 14-day RSI dropped to 42.15 below its 52.89 signal line. The immediate focus rests on the 7,600–7,612 support shelf: holding this band prevents an extension toward the primary 7,550 floor, while any meaningful recovery requires reclaiming 7,658–7,660 to initiate a retest of dynamic resistance at 7,713.