Key Highlights

● London white sugar was last quoted at $525.70 a tonne, up $6.50, on 28 October.

● Futures peaked above $560 a tonne earlier in October.

● EU beet Yield forecasts were cut about 7% against the five-year average.

● EU 2026/27 sugar output is projected near 14.1 million tonnes.

London white sugar was last quoted at US$525.70 a tonne, up US$6.50, on 28 October, the latest settlement available, leaving it below the early-October highs above US$560. Beet losses in Europe are keeping the physical market watchful even as futures ease.

The benchmark is ICE Futures Europe White Sugar No. 5, quoted in US dollars per tonne, and the reading is a front-month price. Futures eased through the second half of October, from US$547.10 on 20 October to US$534.80 on 23 October, before the latest quote. Raw sugar, the cane-based market in New York, fell 0.51% to 19.37 US cents a pound on Friday 30 October, so both sweetener markets are below their mid-month levels.

A Pullback With Beet Losses Behind It

The white sugar market is caught between a price retreat and a Supply problem. Futures have come off their highs, yet Europe's beet harvest has been hurt by weather, and the European Union needs to Import more sugar than usual. That keeps a floor of concern under the market even as traders take money off the table.

Europe's Beet Shortfall

Heatwaves and drought reduced European beet yields this season. Monitoring has cut yield forecasts by about 7% against the five-year average, and EU 2026/27 sugar output is projected near 14.1 million tonnes. Domestic production is below historical levels, so import needs remain elevated.

Weather has turned more helpful for the harvest itself. Cooler, unsettled conditions are forecast for France, Germany and Poland, which should help harvesting and logistics.

What Sugar Costs on the Ground

Physical prices in Europe show where sugar changes hands outside the futures market. On 22 October Lithuanian granulated sugar was quoted at 0.54 euros per kilogram, Polish granulated at 0.59 euros and Polish refined white crystal at 0.62 euros. Those prices are in euros per kilogram, while the futures benchmark is in dollars per tonne, so the two series need converting before they are compared.

Reading the Futures Curve

On 22 October the December 2026 contract stood at US$533.90, down US$9.80 or 1.84% on the day, with March 2027 at US$549.00 and May 2027 at US$557.40. Later months were priced higher than nearby ones, so the market was paying a premium for sugar delivered later in the season.

How White Relates to Raw

Raw and white sugar usually move in the same direction because refiners buy raw sugar and sell white. The difference between them, the white premium, shows refining margins and varies over time. A softer raw market limits the cost of buying cane sugar for refining, while tight European beet supply supports the white price.

The Global Balance

The International Sugar Organization projects a 2026/27 global Deficit of 200,000 tonnes after a surplus of 1.1 million tonnes in 2025/26. Another forecaster narrowed its deficit estimate to 900,000 tonnes. India's monsoon was below normal as of late September. These estimates may have been revised since, but they show a market moving towards deficit.

Who Buys the Sugar

Beet processors in Europe sell sugar rather than buy raw cane, so a higher white price helps their selling prices but lower beet yields raise their unit costs. Cane refiners buy raw sugar and sell white, so their margins depend on the spread between the two. Food manufacturers buy sugar as an ingredient, and higher prices are a cost for them, softened by hedging and contract timing.

White Sugar Watch: Beet Campaign Output, Balance Updates and the December Contract

European beet harvest progress and campaign output figures are the key indicators, together with updated balance estimates from the International Sugar Organization and other forecasters, Brazilian Centre-South data and India's decisions on ethanol and exports. The December contract's first notice and expiry dates are the main calendar items.

Prices could firm if European beet output is cut again, if import Demand is strong or if the Indian crop is smaller. They could weaken if Brazilian crushing is larger, if harvest conditions in Europe stay good or if demand falls in response to price.