Key Highlights

● Wheat rose 0.82% to 603.88 US cents a bushel in Thursday's session.

● China reportedly inquired about buying US soft red winter wheat for delivery next year.

● Wheat is down 10.76% on the month, but still up 15.03% on the year.

● Global wheat production is expected to be the second-highest on record.

CBOT wheat rose 0.82% to 603.88 US cents a bushel in Thursday's session on 29 October, recovering modestly from a 16-week low as reports emerged that China had inquired about buying US wheat. The swing matters to grain merchants such as Bunge (NYSE:BG), which earn money from price spreads and volumes as well as from the level of prices.

The bounce comes after a long slide. Wheat is down 3.47% on the week and 10.76% on the month, and has fallen steadily since it hit a 3.5-year high of US$7.67 on 28 August. It is still 18.95% higher this year and 15.03% above a year ago.

Chinese Interest Against Peace Hopes

Wheat is caught between a demand surprise and a supply story. A possible Chinese buyer is lifting prices from the bottom, while hopes of peace between Russia and Ukraine, which would revive Black Sea grain trade, and ample global supply keep a lid on them.

China Returns to the US Market

Reports said China had inquired about purchasing US soft red winter wheat for delivery next year. State-owned trader Cofco suggested that US-China trade discussions and potential tariff reductions could lead to broader agricultural purchases.

The signal is early. Beijing has pledged to increase purchases of US farm goods, but progress beyond soybeans has been slow, with no US wheat or corn sales recorded to China so far this marketing year. The inquiry is therefore news, not yet trade.

A Well-Supplied World

Supply is plentiful. Global production is expected to reach its second-highest level on record, and larger harvests in Australia and Argentina are adding to availability. Ukraine's agriculture minister has forecast an 18% fall in winter wheat planting, which is a supportive factor, though it affects next year's crop rather than current supplies.

Peace Talks and the Black Sea

Hopes of renewed Russia-Ukraine peace talks have weighed on prices by raising expectations of improved Black Sea grain trade. Attacks have continued, so supply risks remain, and the Black Sea outlook can move quickly in either direction.

What It Means for Merchants and Millers

Wheat affects handlers, merchants and millers differently, and lower prices do not automatically raise or lower profits because volumes, margins, hedging and currency all matter. Bunge operates a Grain Merchandising and Milling segment and closed its Viterra acquisition on 2 July 2025. Merchants can gain from volatility and price spreads but can also be hurt by poor margins or trade restrictions.

Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE:ADM) also trades and mills grain. Its chief executive said in August that the company was monitoring the Ukraine-Russia conflict and expected limited financial impact, having shut most of its Ukrainian operations.

Wheat Watch: Diplomacy, Chinese Orders and Planting

Diplomatic developments between the US, Russia and Ukraine, Russian export data, USDA weekly export sales and any confirmation of Chinese purchases are the near-term guides. Winter wheat planting reports and the next company updates from Bunge and ADM will add detail.

Prices could be supported by a collapse in peace talks, new restrictions on shipping from Russia or Ukraine, smaller Northern Hemisphere winter plantings or confirmed Chinese buying. They could come under pressure if Black Sea trade resumes, if US exports stay weak or if broader grain markets continue to decline.