Key Highlights

● CBOT wheat rose 0.45% to 606.48 US cents a bushel in Friday's session.

● Wheat is down 11.21% on the month and 3.01% on the week.

● Weekly US wheat export sales of 31 million bushels were a marketing-year high.

● Winter wheat area in drought rose to 50%.

CBOT wheat rose 0.45% to 606.48 US cents a bushel in Friday's session on 30 October, extending a modest recovery from a 16-week low of US$5.99 reached on 28 October. The bounce followed reports that China had inquired about buying US soft red winter wheat, though no sale has been recorded.

The gain of 2.73 cents is small against the market's recent fall. Wheat is down 3.01% on the week and 11.21% on the month, though it remains 19.57% higher this year and 13.52% above a year ago. Prices have slid steadily from a 3.5-year high of US$7.67 on 28 August.

A Rumour Against a Glut

Wheat is trading on a rumour of Chinese Demand set against a very large global supply. An inquiry is not a purchase, so the bounce rests on a possibility. The Supply side is concrete: global production is expected to be the second highest on record, and traders are watching for any sign that peace in the Black Sea will release more grain.

What China Actually Asked

State-owned trader Cofco reportedly asked about US soft red winter wheat for delivery into China, with shipments loading in the new year. The inquiry fits a broader promise: China has committed to US$17 billion of annual US farm purchases, equal to US$10.5 billion prorated for 2026. Progress beyond soybeans has been slow, however, and no US wheat or corn sales to China have been recorded this Marketing year.

A Heavy Global Supply

Larger harvests in Australia and Argentina are adding to availability, and demand from major exporters has been subdued. That is why wheat has kept falling even when US export figures improve. Minneapolis spring wheat has set new contract lows in recent sessions, and Chicago and Kansas City wheat have touched three- to four-month lows, so the current rebound starts from a depressed base.

The Black Sea and Peace Hopes

Geopolitics cuts both ways. Hopes of renewed Russia-Ukraine talks have weighed on prices by raising expectations of better Black Sea grain trade. At least one vessel has reportedly passed the Kerch Strait into the Black Sea, and a recent ceasefire in the Kherson region may bring more shipments. Prospects of peace and a Black Sea reopening have pressured prices for two months. Ongoing attacks in the region still pose supply risks, which is why traders have not written off the upside.

Export Sales and Weather

US export data have been better than expected. Weekly sales of 31 million bushels were a marketing-year high, with the Philippines taking 8 million bushels and Indonesia and South Korea 5 million to 6 million each. Year-to-date commitments are still 29% below a year earlier, against a USDA forecast of a 17% decline, and equal 56% of the USDA's full-year forecast compared with a 61% average.

On weather, winter wheat area in drought rose one point to 50%. Dry conditions can affect crop establishment, which is one reason traders keep an eye on the planted crop even in a heavy-supply year.

Wheat Watch: Cofco Orders, the Black Sea and Weekly Sales

A confirmed Cofco purchase would be the clearest sign that the inquiry has turned into demand. Weekly USDA export sales will show whether the marketing-year high in sales was a one-week event. Developments in the Black Sea and the Kherson ceasefire are unscheduled risks.

Prices could firm if China confirms purchases, if the ceasefire fails and Black Sea shipments are disrupted or if drought spreads in the winter wheat belt. They could weaken if Black Sea trade normalises, if global supply stays near record levels or if the Chinese inquiry does not turn into sales.