Key Highlights

  • Wheat traded near US$6.74 per bushel during today's session, up 0.30%.
  • Wheat is down 4.50% on the week and 6.85% on the month.
  • USDA put US 2026/27 wheat production at 1.534 billion bushels.
  • USDA lifted US ending stocks by 23 million bushels to 740 million.

Wheat Edges Up Near US$6.74

CBOT soft red winter wheat traded near US$6.74 per bushel, or 674.29 US cents, during today's session, up 2.04 cents, or 0.30%, according to market data. It is down 4.50% on the week and 6.85% on the month, though 32.65% higher year to date and 34.44% on the year. December wheat closed at US$6.72 1/4 on Monday, October 12, up 1 1/4 cents, after closing at US$6.71 on Friday, down 12 1/4 cents.

December wheat has eased about 13 cents from US$6.85 3/4 on October 2. One broker's weekly note said wheat fell in both Chicago and Kansas City last week and closed at new lows for the move, with Chicago support listed at 645, 636 and 618 and resistance at 692.

USDA's October Report: Wheat Stocks and Exports

The October WASDE put US 2026/27 wheat production at 1.534 billion bushels, cut exports by 25 million bushels to 750 million, and lifted ending stocks by 23 million bushels to 740 million. The season-average farm price was lowered 10 cents to US$6.30. A pre-report survey averaged 722 million bushels of US stocks, so the figure was above expectations.

USDA put world trade at 209 million tonnes, down 2.8 million, and world ending stocks at about 276 million tonnes, slightly below the previous month. The American picture is one of modestly higher stocks and weaker exports, which is consistent with the soft tone in futures, though the report does not itself explain daily price changes.

Diplomacy and the Black Sea

The latest weakness was attributed to President Trump's announcement of an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine, with Ukraine's president saying Kyiv supports it but awaits details. Earlier, Putin had rejected truce proposals on October 1, showing how changeable diplomacy has been. Russia and Ukraine together account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports, so a durable agreement could reduce risk premiums while a breakdown could revive them. A strong US dollar can also keep American exports uncompetitive.

Grain Handlers: GrainCorp and Bunge

GrainCorp (ASX:GNC) is an Australian grain handler and trader. In a September 10 update it said underlying EBITDA should be around the midpoint of its $200 million to $240 million range and that winter crop development was positive in New South Wales and Victoria but drier in Queensland. ABARES's September forecast for the east coast winter crop was 26.6 million tonnes, up 12% from June. GrainCorp said it was monitoring new-crop export opportunities, and its FY26 results are due on Thursday, November 12. A big local crop can raise volumes, but margins depend on export timing and supply-chain margins.

Bunge Global (NYSE:BG) lowered its outlook for Grain Merchandising and Milling in July, even though that segment's adjusted EBIT rose to US$67 million from US$29 million in the second quarter on higher volumes, with wheat milling cited as improved. Bunge divested corn milling in 2025 and completed the Viterra combination.

Other Merchants and Input Suppliers

The Andersons (NASDAQ:ANDE) merchandises grain and said its Agribusiness segment benefited from higher commodity prices and volatility, which shows why flat or falling prices need not be negative for traders if volatility remains. Nutrien (NYSE:NTR) serves growers through crop inputs and retail, and its dividend of US$0.55 per share is payable on October 16, with wheat prices mattering to it only indirectly through grower returns.

Calendar: Export Sales From October 15 and GrainCorp Results on November 12

CME lists weekly export sales on Thursdays beginning October 15 and the next WASDE on November 10. GrainCorp reports on November 12, and Nutrien holds an Investor Day on November 30. Australian weather in Queensland and elsewhere may also affect supply.

In short, wheat has drifted lower on rising US stocks and Black Sea diplomacy, and merchants that earn fees on volumes may be less affected than growers, while hedging policies mean reported earnings often lag futures by several months.