Key Highlights

  • Soybeans traded near US$12.85 per bushel during today's session, down 0.23%.
  • USDA raised 2026/27 soybean production by 27 million bushels to 4.56 billion.
  • Ending stocks rose 5 million bushels to 315 million, above the 311 million survey average.
  • Exporters sold 192,000 tons of US soybeans to China for 2026/27 in September.

Soybeans Edge Lower Near US$12.85

Soybeans traded near US$12.85 per bushel, or 1,284.73 US cents, during today's session, down 3.02 cents, or 0.23%, according to market data. They are down 1.48% on the week and 1.58% on the month, but 24.57% higher year to date and 27.54% on the year. November soybeans closed at US$12.87 3/4 on Monday, October 12, down 4 1/4 cents from Friday's US$12.92.

What USDA's October Report Said

The October WASDE raised US 2026/27 soybean production by 27 million bushels to 4.56 billion on a yield of 53.1 bushels per acre, with harvested area unchanged at 85.9 million acres. Ending stocks rose 5 million bushels to 315 million, exports were raised by 10 million bushels, and the season-average price stayed at US$12.00. A pre-report survey averaged 52.9 bushels per acre and 311 million bushels of stocks, so USDA was slightly above trade expectations.

World ending stocks were put at 124.3 million tonnes, up 0.3 million, on world production of 442.7 million tonnes. USDA nudged supply up and demand up together, leaving the balance close to unchanged, which helps explain why the price reaction was small compared with corn, where the same report raised ending stocks by far more than traders expected.

China and South America

China remains the swing buyer. In September, exporters sold 192,000 tons of US soybeans to China for 2026/27, but tariffs still kept most US cargoes out of reach, and Chinese processors hoped a visit by President Xi to Washington would lead Beijing to ease a 10% tariff. China's Agriculture Ministry cut its 2026/27 soybean output forecast. In Brazil, planting of the 2026/27 crop had started in parts of Parana after favorable rain, so South American supply will become more important as the northern harvest ends.

Crushers and Merchants: Bunge and ADM

Bunge Global (NYSE:BG) processes oilseeds and merchandises grain. In the second quarter its soybean processing and refining adjusted EBIT rose to US$445 million from US$304 million, and it raised 2026 adjusted earnings guidance to US$9.25 to US$9.75 per share while lowering its grain merchandising and milling outlook. Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE:ADM) said its crushing operating profit reached US$363 million and raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to about US$5.15 to US$5.60. For both firms, the spread between beans and the meal and oil they sell matters more than the flat price of beans, plus hedges.

Other Listed Exposure in Grain and Feed

The Andersons (NASDAQ:ANDE) runs grain merchandising, fertilizer and ethanol operations. Its Agribusiness segment earned US$20 million pretax in the second quarter and it expects Port of Houston soybean meal export capability in the fourth quarter. Nutrien (NYSE:NTR) sells crop inputs and services, so its sales depend more on grower economics and acreage decisions than on daily bean prices. Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN) buys feed ingredients, listing corn and soybean meal as input risks, and GrainCorp (ASX:GNC) is principally a grain, oilseed and storage business in eastern Australia.

Calendar: China Trade, Harvest Weather and the November 10 WASDE

Heavy Midwest rain through September held back the harvest, and hurricane remnants could bring more. Delays could slow farmer selling, while a quick finish could add to supply. CME lists US export sales on Thursday, October 15 and the next WASDE on November 10, and Nutrien's Investor Day is November 30.

In short, USDA's report left the soybean balance close to unchanged, so China trade, harvest weather and the crush margin matter more for beans than the headline numbers.