Key Highlights

● Soybeans rose 0.64% to 1,227.60 US cents a bushel in Friday's session.

● Chinese commitments reached 15.07 million tonnes, with 5.8 million more to unknown buyers.

● USDA forecasts a record 2026/27 US soybean crop of 4.56 billion bushels.

● Bunge reported third-quarter adjusted Earnings of $2.56 per share.

Soybeans rose 0.64% to 1,227.60 US cents a bushel in Friday's session on 30 October, a modest bounce for a market that has hovered near a nine-week low. The rebound matters to oilseed processors such as Bunge (NYSE:BG), which crush the beans and earn their margins on meal and oil.

The gain of 7.85 cents still leaves soybeans down 2.28% on the week and 4.37% on the month. Over longer periods the picture is stronger: the market is up 19.15% so far this year and 11.65% from a year ago.

A Market Where Sales and Supply Pull Apart

Soybeans are being pulled by two forces that rarely agree. Demand is unusually firm, with export commitments running far ahead of the government forecast. Supply is heavy too, with a record US crop and a fast harvest. For now the crop has had the upper hand, which is why strong sales have not stopped prices from sliding toward their lowest level in about two months.

What China Has Booked, and What It Has Not

China sits at the centre of the demand story. Weekly export sales of 95 million bushels came in at the high end of expectations, and year-to-date commitments are up 80% on a year earlier against a USDA forecast of a 12% rise. Sales now equal 62% of the full-year forecast, compared with a 52% historical average.

Within that, sales of 1.627 million tonnes lifted Chinese commitments to 15.07 million tonnes, with a further 5.8 million tonnes booked to unknown buyers. Spain took 8 million bushels, and Pakistan and Vietnam each took 4 million to 5 million.

There is a counterweight inside China. State grain reserve manager Sinograin plans to auction 400,000 tonnes of soybeans on Tuesday 3 November, after its last auction sold only about one-third of the Volume offered. That points to patchy domestic demand for state-held stocks, even as Chinese buyers book US cargoes.

A Record Crop Still Sets the Tone

The supply picture explains the price. The USDA's October supply and demand report raised its 2026/27 US soybean forecast by 1% to a record 4.56 billion bushels, 7% above the previous year, and lifted the projected Yield by 0.6 bushels to a record 53.1 bushels per acre.

The harvest was 79% complete as of 25 October, slightly ahead of the 77% five-year average. US export inspections climbed to 2.48 million tonnes for the week ended 22 October, up from 2.07 million tonnes the week before and well above the 1.16 million tonnes a year earlier. Brazil adds to the competition: after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's re-election weakened the real, Brazilian beans became cheaper for overseas buyers relative to US supplies.

Crush Margins and Fund Positioning

Beans also trade on what they are worth after crushing. The board crush Margin was reported at US$2.27 per bushel on 29 October, down 8 cents on the day, with December meal at a two-month low and December soybean oil steady. Weak meal weighs on processing value even when beans hold up.

Funds have trimmed their bets but remain heavily invested. Managed money was net long about 450,000 contracts across the soybean complex, down from a record 558,000, and soybean open interest fell by 26,000 contracts.

What It Means for Bunge and ADM

Bunge is a global oilseed processor and grain merchant. On 29 October it reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of US$2.56 per share on net sales of US$23.804 billion, and it kept its 2026 adjusted earnings outlook at US$9.25 to US$9.75 per share. The company said its Soybean Processing and Refining outlook was slightly lower. A large US crop can lower the cost of beans for crushers, but weaker meal prices can offset that benefit.

Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE:ADM), a large US processor and merchandiser, is expected to report third-quarter results on Tuesday 3 November. Its crushing margins and export activity are the areas to watch.

Soybean Watch: Sinograin's Auction, Export Sales and Results Season

The next dated events are the Sinograin auction and ADM's expected results, both on Tuesday 3 November. Weekly USDA export sales and the harvest progress report will show whether commitments keep building and how quickly the record crop is reaching the bin.

Prices could find support from larger Chinese purchases, a slower harvest or firmer demand for soybean oil. They could stay under pressure if yields confirm the record crop, if crush margins stay thin or if Brazilian supplies compete harder for export business.