Key Highlights

● December soybean meal settled at $364.50 a short ton, its latest verified CME settlement, up $1.30.

● September NOPA crush fell to 196.3 million bushels, the lowest monthly total since August 2025.

● The USDA left its 2026/27 soybean meal price forecast unchanged at $340 a short ton.

December CBOT soybean meal futures settled at $364.50 a short ton in their latest verified session, up $1.30, with trading since then described as mixed; one source showed an early-session level near $368.15, while a broker note reported meal finishing lower by three to five dollars in the same period. The main supported development is a weak September crush report from the National Oilseed Processors Association: members crushed 196.3 million bushels, the lowest monthly total since August 2025 and below analyst expectations near 203.7 million, attributed in part to limited soybean availability during a slower harvest.

Less Crush, Mixed Signals

Less crushing should mean less meal reaching the market, a potentially supportive factor. However, soybean futures themselves traded weak on harvest progress the same day, closing at a seven-week low, so meal isn't moving in a straight line with the broader complex. The USDA's October WASDE left its 2026/27 soybean meal price forecast unchanged at $340 a short ton while raising US soybean production estimates to 4,562 million bushels. One agribusiness executive said in a recent earnings call that global meal demand was strong, while Brazil's crop agency Conab has forecast a larger Brazilian soybean crop that could add competing supply later in the season.

Oil, China and the Crush Margin

Meal is only part of crush economics. December soybean oil has traded near a 2.5-month low, and soft oil values could reduce the incentive to crush even when meal is firm; clarity on US renewable fuel volume obligations has been cited as supportive for domestic soybean oil demand, meaning pending policy decisions on small refinery exemptions could matter for crush margins. Demand from China is the other swing factor: total Chinese purchases have run around 13 million tonnes against a 25 million tonne target, while China's September soybean imports fell 7.7% year over year. China mainly buys beans rather than meal, so any effect on US meal prices is indirect, and strong bean exports leaving fewer soybeans for domestic crushers is a possible but unproven link to meal supply.

Which US-Listed Companies Are Exposed

Bunge Global (NYSE:BG), whose Viterra combination is now complete, reported soybean processing segment earnings before interest and tax of $445 million in its most recent quarter, up from $304 million, and lifted its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $9.25-9.75; crush profit depends on oil and meal values together, so meal alone doesn't set results.

Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE:ADM) reported crushing profit of $363 million in its most recent quarter, up sharply from $33 million, crediting the Renewable Volume Obligation, higher energy prices, stable meal prices, and roughly $100 million of mark-to-market and timing effects.

Pilgrim's Pride (NASDAQ:PPC), a major chicken producer that buys meal as a feed input, reported adjusted EBITDA of $360 million and net leverage of 1.43 times in its most recent quarter, with margin pressure attributed to lower commodity pricing broadly rather than feed costs specifically in the summary reviewed.

What Could Change the Outlook

Supportive factors could include a further drop in crush if harvest delays persist, steady Chinese buying, and strong global feed demand. Weakening factors could include faster Brazilian planting, larger South American supply, and fund selling. A stronger dollar, recently at its highest level since April 2025, could also make US meal less competitive abroad, though that link is an inference rather than a figure drawn directly from the data.