Key Highlights

● November robusta closed at US$3,422 a tonne Friday, up US$51 or about 1.5%.

● Vietnam's September coffee exports rose 53% from a year earlier.

● ICE robusta inventories reached a 10.75-month high of 5,603 lots.

● Keurig Dr Pepper completed its US$18 billion acquisition of JDE Peet's on 1 April.

November 2026 robusta coffee futures on ICE Futures Europe in London closed at US$3,422 a tonne on Friday 16 October 2026, up US$51 or about 1.5%, a modest recovery after a sharp fall the day before. The bounce sits inside a heavy supply picture, which matters to coffee buyers such as Keurig Dr Pepper (NASDAQ:KDP).

The previous session was the harder one. On Thursday 15 October the November contract (RMX26) closed down 3.10%, so Friday's rise came after a clear drop. Prices were already drifting lower before that: a Vietnamese market summary cited US$3,470 a tonne for the November contract on 12 October.

One point of detail helps when comparing coffees. ICE robusta is quoted in US dollars per tonne in 10-tonne lots, while arabica trades in US cents per pound in New York, so the two prices cannot be read side by side without converting units.

A Bounce Inside a Heavy Supply Picture

Robusta is trading between a one-day recovery and a run of supply news that has leaned the other way. Larger shipments from Vietnam and Brazil, rising exchange stocks and a forecast global surplus all point to ample coffee. A lower Brazilian robusta crop estimate is the main counterweight.

Vietnam and Brazil Are Shipping More

Vietnam is the world's key robusta origin, and its September coffee exports rose 53% from a year earlier. Brazil's September exports were up more than 20%. Larger flows from both countries give buyers more coffee to choose from, which is the main reason the supply news reads as bearish.

The picture is not uniformly heavy. Brazil's robusta output is expected to fall 6.6% in 2026, so strong export volumes are set against a smaller crop. How those two facts balance out will depend on how much coffee remains once the current shipments clear.

Stocks Are Building in the Warehouses

Exchange stocks give a second view of supply. ICE robusta inventories reached a 10.75-month high of 5,603 lots on Thursday 15 October. An earlier report put stocks at 5,398 lots, so the build has continued. Rising certified stocks mean more coffee is sitting available for delivery against the contract.

A Global Surplus on the Horizon

The longer-run backdrop is also easy. The International Coffee Organization projects a record 2025/26 crop of 183.6 million bags and a surplus of 3 million bags, the first in five years. A surplus tends to weigh on prices, though much depends on demand and on the next crop.

What It Means for Coffee Buyers

Listed exposure sits mainly with buyers of coffee, who gain when input costs ease. Keurig Dr Pepper completed its US$18 billion acquisition of JDE Peet's on 1 April 2026, creating what is described as a leading pure-play coffee and tea company. KDP plans to separate into a North American beverage company and a global coffee company, which puts coffee costs closer to the centre of its earnings.

Coffee Holding Co (NASDAQ:JVA), a small US roaster and green coffee dealer, shows the other side of falling prices. In its fiscal third-quarter release of 11 September 2026, net sales fell 9.3% to US$21.7 million as falling green coffee prices led to lower selling prices, while net income was US$1.99 million, or US$0.35 a share. It reported a net trading gain and said cost of sales included realised and unrealised hedging results.

Robusta Watch: Stocks, Exports and the January Roll

Daily ICE certified stocks, Vietnamese export data and the progress of Brazil's crop are the near-term indicators, and the International Coffee Organization's monthly updates will refine the surplus estimate. Prices could firm if Vietnam's harvest disappoints or if Brazil's lower robusta output estimate proves to matter more than export volumes. They could weaken if exports from Vietnam and Brazil stay strong, if exchange stocks keep climbing or if the projected surplus is confirmed.

On the calendar, the next trading month after November is January 2027, so quotes will roll shortly. Quarterly results from Keurig Dr Pepper, and Coffee Holding's fiscal year-end results later, will show how buyers are coping with price swings.