Key Highlights

● London robusta fell 1.05% to $3,194 a tonne in its latest quote, dated 26 October.

● Certified robusta stocks in London reached 6,488 lots, a 13-month high.

● The November contract fell 5.45% in the week to 23 October.

● Brazilian coffee shipments reached about 3.30 million bags by 22 October, up 43.2%.

London robusta coffee fell 1.05% to US$3,194 a tonne in its latest quote, dated 26 October, extending a slide that took US$290 off the November contract in a week. The decline matters to coffee buyers such as Keurig Dr Pepper (NASDAQ:KDP), which purchase green coffee for pods, blends and ready-to-drink products.

The benchmark is ICE Futures Europe robusta, quoted in US dollars per tonne, and the November 2026 contract (RCX6) is the reading used here. The November contract settled at US$3,228 on 23 October, down 5.45% on the week, after trading at US$3,484 on 19 October. Robusta is a separate market from arabica, which is quoted in US cents per pound in New York, so the two prices cannot be compared directly.

Falling Prices, a Flat Curve

The fall has been steep, yet the shape of the market shows no sign of an acute shortage in London. On 23 October the November contract settled at US$3,228 and January at US$3,242, a gap of only US$14, so later delivery was priced barely above nearby delivery. A market short of coffee normally pays a much larger premium for nearby supply. This one is paying almost none.

London Warehouses Fill Up

The clearest weight on prices is a build in certified stocks, the coffee that has been graded and lodged against the exchange contract. Stocks reached 6,380 lots on 21 October and 6,488 lots on 22 October, described as the highest in about 13 months. A Ugandan coffee authority treated the build as bearish.

Certified stocks are a narrow measure. They count only coffee that has passed grading, so a rise can reflect beans moving into the system as well as extra Supply overall. The figure is best read alongside crop reports and export data.

Brazil and Vietnam Look Easier

Supply prospects have improved in the two largest robusta origins. Brazil matters for robusta because of its conilon crop, and September rainfall in the conilon area of Linhares was 90 millimetres against a normal 29.4 millimetres. Forecasters see better prospects for the 2027/28 crop, although larger supply does not yet amount to a surplus.

Vietnam is the largest robusta producer, and forecasters say better weather in Vietnam and Indonesia has reduced supply risks. Brazilian shipments add to the picture: about 3.30 million bags had left the country by 22 October, 43.2% more than a year earlier.

Two Coffees, Two Stories

Arabica is moving for different reasons. Certified arabica stocks were only 234,433 bags on 22 October, close to a multi-decade low, while robusta stocks are rising. That contrast explains why the two markets do not always move together and why a robusta fall does not automatically translate to arabica.

What It Means for Coffee Buyers

Keurig Dr Pepper sells coffee pods, brewers and ready-to-drink products and buys green coffee. Robusta is used mainly in blends and instant coffee, so the company's direct exposure to the London contract is smaller than its exposure to arabica. Lower green coffee costs can help margins, but hedges and pricing decisions delay the effect.

Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) focuses on arabica and is a coffee buyer rather than a robusta user, so its exposure to this market is small. Lower prices also do not help every business, because retailers may pass savings on to customers.

Robusta Watch: Stock Reports, Export Data and the Vietnamese Harvest

Daily ICE Europe certified stock figures, the International Coffee Organization's October report, official Brazilian export data and Vietnamese harvest progress are the main indicators to follow.

Prices could find support if certified stocks fall, if weather problems emerge in Vietnam, Indonesia or Brazil, or if exports slow. They could weaken if stocks keep growing, if exports stay strong or if harvest prospects remain good.