Key Highlights

● London robusta settled at $3,228 a tonne on 23 October, down 5.45% on the week.

● ICE robusta stocks rose for six weeks to a 13-month high of 6,612 lots.

● Vietnam's September coffee exports rose 53% year on year to 124,000 tonnes.

● Conab expects Brazil's 2026 robusta output to fall 6.6% to 19.39 million bags.

London robusta coffee for November delivery (ICE Futures Europe, RMX26) settled at US$3,228 a tonne on Friday 23 October, down 5.45% on the week, the latest settlement available. Market reports since then show the contract falling 3.56% in morning trading on 26 October and rising 2.38% on 27 October, a volatile stretch that matters to green coffee dealers such as Coffee Holding (NASDAQ:JVA).

Robusta is quoted in US dollars per tonne on ICE Futures Europe in London. It is a separate benchmark from arabica, which trades in US cents per pound in New York.

Rising Stocks Against Mixed Supply News

Robusta is moving on one clear signal and one open question. The clear signal is inventory: London certified stocks have risen for six weeks. The open question is weather, because rain in Vietnam has helped the crop but a drought warning for later in the cycle keeps risks alive.

Inventories Climb

ICE robusta stocks rose for six weeks to a 13-month high of 6,612 lots on 23 October. Market commentary linked the week's decline to the rise in London certified stocks to roughly a one-year high, alongside favourable conditions in Brazil and Vietnam. Higher certified stocks usually indicate ample deliverable supply.

Vietnam Sets the Pace

Vietnam is the world's largest robusta producer. September exports rose 53% from a year earlier to 124,000 tonnes, and exports from January to September rose 16.2% to 1.45 million tonnes. The 2025/26 crop is projected to rise 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million tonnes, or 29.4 million bags.

Weather is mixed. Recent rain has improved soil moisture in the Central Highlands, which is bearish for prices, but Vietnam's Agriculture Ministry warned on 16 October of possible El Niño-linked drought later in 2026 and early 2027. Better weather in Vietnam and Indonesia also reduces supply risks for the 2027/28 crop, according to market commentary.

Brazil and the Wider Coffee Balance

Brazil also grows robusta, mainly conilon. Conab expects Brazil's 2026 robusta output to fall 6.6% to 19.39 million bags, while arabica output is expected to rise 34.8%. The USDA projects 2026/27 world robusta output down 0.7%, so robusta supply is not growing as quickly as arabica supply.

The International Coffee Organization estimates a 3 million bag surplus for 2025/26, the first in five years. Roasters can adjust blends between robusta and arabica, so supply news in one market often reaches the other, though the two remain separate benchmarks with different drivers.

What It Means for Coffee Companies

Robusta is used mostly in instant coffee, espresso blends and some mass-market ground coffee, so listed company exposure is indirect and falling futures do not automatically improve margins.

Coffee Holding is a wholesale roaster and green coffee dealer selling to regional roasters and coffee shops in the US and Canada. Its fiscal 2025 results showed net sales of US$96.3 million, up 23%, and about US$1 million of cash cost from coffee import tariffs. The release does not break out robusta, so how much of its purchasing is robusta is not stated.

J.M. Smucker (NYSE:SJM) sells Folgers and Dunkin' packaged coffee. Its fiscal 2027 first-quarter coffee sales rose 13% to US$807.8 million, helped by pricing, and it raised its earnings outlook. Its robusta usage depends on blends and is not specified.

Robusta Watch: Stocks, Exports and the January Roll

ICE Futures Europe settlements, certified stock reports, Vietnam's customs export data and Central Highlands weather are the near-term guides, along with the Brazilian real and Conab's next estimate. Smucker's next report and Coffee Holding's results will show how buyers are coping with price swings.

Prices could find support from a sustained drop in certified stocks, a stronger real, drought in Vietnam's Central Highlands or lower Brazilian conilon output. They could come under pressure from further stock accumulation, strong Vietnamese exports or favourable rain for the next crop. After November, the next trading month is January 2027, so quotes will roll shortly.