Key Highlights

● Raw sugar fell 0.51% to 19.37 US cents a pound in Friday's session.

● Prices are down 4.30% on the week but up 2.27% on the month.

● Raw sugar touched a 19-month high of 21.28 cents earlier in October.

● Brazilian sugar output fell 10.3% through August as mills shifted cane to ethanol.

Raw sugar fell 0.51% to 19.37 US cents a pound in Friday's session on 30 October, leaving it 4.30% lower on the week and well below the 19-month high of 21.28 cents reached between 14 and 20 October. The retreat comes as Supply signals from Brazil and India point in different directions.

The benchmark is ICE US Sugar No. 11, a Futures Contract for 112,000 pounds of raw cane sugar quoted in US cents per pound, and the price here is a continuous front-month reading. It is a separate market from London white sugar, which is quoted in dollars per tonne. Raw sugar is still up 2.27% on the month, 29.05% since the start of the year and 34.23% from a year ago, so the recent slide has taken back only part of a strong run.

Two Producers, Two Different Stories

Brazil and India set the tone for world sugar, and they are sending opposite messages. Brazil's harvest is moving again after weather delays, which lifts production expectations. India faces a smaller crop after a weak monsoon and has changed its ethanol rules. The market is trying to weigh a larger Brazilian crush against tighter Indian supply.

Brazil: Harvest Resumes, the Sugar Mix Decides

Rain had disrupted harvesting in Brazil's Centre-South, but better weather has allowed crushing to resume and production expectations have risen. The key variable is the sugar mix, the share of cane that mills send to sugar rather than ethanol. Crushing through August was up 1.8% on the year, yet sugar output fell 10.3% as mills shifted cane to ethanol, according to UNICA data.

That choice between sugar and ethanol is why energy prices matter to sugar. Crude Oil rose 2.85% on Friday to US$104.91 a barrel while raw sugar fell, a reminder that the two markets do not always move together.

India: A Weaker Monsoon and an Ethanol Change

India is expected to produce a smaller crop after a weak, El Niño-linked monsoon, which was 12% below normal as of late September. An Indian government order also ends purchases of sugar-based ethanol by state fuel retailers from 1 November, a change that could redirect cane towards sugar production.

Thailand adds to the supply picture. Forecasters see Thai output falling 17% to 10 million tonnes.

The Global Balance Is Close to Even

The Balance Sheet shows how little room there is. The International Sugar Organization projects a 2026/27 global Deficit of 200,000 tonnes after a 1.1 million tonne surplus in 2025/26. Another forecaster narrowed its 2026/27 deficit estimate to 900,000 tonnes from 1.7 million. Those estimates date from late September and may have changed since, but both point to a market moving from surplus towards deficit.

A balance this close to even explains why each crop estimate moves prices. Small revisions to Brazilian, Indian or Thai output can turn a surplus into a deficit.

What Refiners and Food Makers Watch

Raw sugar is the input cost for cane refiners, which buy raw sugar and sell refined product. Their margins depend on contracts with customers as much as on the futures price. Confectioners and beverage makers buy sugar as an ingredient, so higher prices are a cost for them, softened by hedging and contract timing.

Sugar Watch: UNICA Reports, India's 1 November Change and the Next Balance Estimates

The next UNICA reports on Centre-South output will show whether the sugar mix is rising, and India's ethanol change from 1 November will show how much cane moves towards sugar. Crude oil prices and the next balance estimates from the International Sugar Organization and other forecasters are the other indicators.

Prices could firm if the Indian crop disappoints, if Brazil's sugar mix falls or if ethanol Demand extends. They could weaken if Brazilian crushing is larger than expected, if the sugar mix rises or if demand proves resilient only at lower prices.