Key Highlights

● March raw sugar No. 11 was quoted at 19.91 US cents a pound on October 2, 2026, up 5.12%.

● Market commentary cites a 900,000-tonne global deficit for 2026/27, with Thai output down 17% and EU beet down 19%.

● The October contract has expired, so the 10.29% monthly gain partly reflects the roll to March 2027 pricing.

● Rogers Sugar said raw No. 11 averaged 14.3 cents in its fiscal third quarter, against 17.4 cents a year earlier.

ICE raw sugar No. 11 for March 2027 delivery was quoted at 19.91 US cents per pound on Friday, October 2, 2026, up 0.97 cents, or 5.12%, on the day. Another feed showed 19.93 cents, up 5.23%, so the figures differ by 0.02 cents depending on the quote. The jump leaves the market close to the top of its 52-week range of 13.26 to 19.96 cents and puts producers and buyers such as Rogers Sugar and Associated British Foods in focus.

A One-Day Surge Lifts March Sugar Next to Its Yearly Peak

The contract covers 112,000 pounds, so one cent is worth $1,120 per contract. Market commentary ties the rise to a tightening 2026/27 outlook, but that describes the season, not a single trigger for the day.

The October 2026 contract has expired, so March 2027 is now the active benchmark, and the one-day move compares March with March. The monthly gain of 10.29% needs more care. On September 10, industry commentary put October at 18.40 cents and March at 19.39 cents, a gap of about one cent, with deferred 2029 contracts at 17.81 cents. Part of the monthly gain may reflect the move from October to March pricing, not a change in value.

Thai, Indian and European Shortfalls Build the Deficit Case

A major broker projects a global deficit of 900,000 tonnes for 2026/27, according to market commentary. The pressure points include Thai output expected to fall 17% to below 10 million tonnes, monsoon concerns in India, summer heat cutting European beet output by 19% and wet conditions delaying the Brazilian harvest. El Nino raises the risk of a deficit further. Weather in Brazil’s Center-South cane belt remains the main swing factor for nearby supply.

In early September, nearby supplies from key origins, particularly Brazil, were tight, while the forward curve sloped downward, with later-dated contracts cheaper. A downward curve typically signals that traders expect the tightness to ease. Closer to home, the USDA’s September 2026 WASDE projects US 2026/27 sugar ending stocks of 1.697 million short tons, a stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5%, and Mexican production of 5.377 million tonnes. Those figures describe a domestic market protected from the world price.

United Nations commentary put global food prices near a four-year high in September, though that broad index does not show that sugar demand has changed. Brazilian mills can shift cane between sugar and ethanol, so the real and crude oil often influence raw sugar.

Rogers, ABF and Hershey Feel the Swing Differently

Raw sugar is a cost for refiners and food makers and a revenue driver for producers, so higher prices do not help every company equally. Rogers Sugar, the Canadian refiner, reported on August 6 that raw No. 11 averaged 14.3 cents in its fiscal third quarter, down from 17.4 cents a year earlier. It posted adjusted EBITDA of C$35.6 million and net earnings of C$12.1 million and uses a multi-year hedging strategy for energy and interest rates. Its release does not describe how it hedges raw sugar costs, so the effect of the recent rise on margins is uncertain.

Associated British Foods owns British Sugar and Illovo Sugar. Its July 2026 trading update guided to an adjusted operating loss of £25 million to £60 million for the sugar segment in the 2026 financial year, blaming higher expected European gas costs linked to the Middle East conflict. It also flagged currency risk in Malawi and a slower start at a new Tanzanian factory, and said the European market would probably stay in surplus. Sugar is only part of the diversified group, and its beet exposure is European rather than tied to No. 11.

Hershey (NYSE:HSY) is a sugar consumer. It reported lower net commodity costs in the second quarter and says it hedges raw materials, but the release does not break out sugar. US sugar prices are set by domestic programs and import quotas, which reduces the direct link to the world contract.

Brazil’s Cane Belt and the October 9 WASDE Frame the Next Move

Support could build if the deficit estimates prove right, if rain hampers Brazilian harvesting or if a weak monsoon or El Nino effects cut Asian cane. A fall back toward recent lows could follow if Brazilian output proves larger than feared, if Indian and Thai crops recover or if the one-day rise is reversed by profit-taking. The downward slope of the forward curve shows the market was already pricing some easing.

The next USDA WASDE is due on October 9, 2026, with further releases on November 10 and December 10. Brazilian industry data on Center-South crushing and sugar mix, Indian monsoon outcomes and any Indian export decisions are also worth following. March 2027 sugar has a listed settlement date of February 26, 2027, so the next roll point is some way off.