Key Highlights

● Orange juice fell 3.38% to 132.27 US cents a pound in Friday's session.

● Prices are down 6.78% on the week and 35.47% since the start of the year.

● USDA forecasts Florida's orange crop at 10.0 million boxes, down 23%.

● Cold-storage orange juice concentrate was 171% of a year earlier at the end of August.

Orange juice futures fell 3.38% to 132.27 US cents a pound in Friday's session on 30 October, down 6.78% on the week even though Florida's crop forecast has shrunk. The slide matters to citrus growers such as Alico (NASDAQ:ALCO) and to juice sellers such as Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), which sit on opposite sides of the price.

The benchmark is ICE US FCOJ-A, quoted in US cents per pound. Orange juice is down 6.55% on the month, 35.47% since the start of the year and 21.55% from a year ago. A smaller crop would normally lift prices, so the persistent fall is the puzzle the market is trying to explain.

A Short Crop That Has Not Lifted Prices

Two facts point in opposite directions. Florida's orange crop is forecast sharply lower, which should be supportive. Cold-storage stocks of juice concentrate are far above last year's levels, which is a heavy weight on prices. So far the large stocks have outweighed the smaller crop.

Florida's Smaller Crop

The US Department of Agriculture's 9 October forecast put Florida's orange crop at 10.0 million boxes, down 23% from 12.95 million. Valencia oranges, the late variety most used for juice, were forecast at 7.00 million boxes, and non-Valencias at 3.00 million. Total US oranges were forecast at 61.70 million boxes against 63.54 million a year earlier, because California is expected to produce more.

The forecast does not show how much fruit goes to juice, so Florida boxes should not be treated as total juice supply. Brazil is the dominant global producer and exporter of orange juice, and Florida is a smaller part of world supply. The Brazilian harvest therefore matters at least as much to the benchmark.

Stocks Well Above Last Year

The National Agricultural Statistics Service reported that orange juice concentrate in cold storage on 31 August was 501,044 thousand pounds, 171% of a year earlier and 106% of the 31 July level. Large warehouses give buyers a cushion and reduce the urgency to pay up for new supply. The next cold-storage report is due on 24 November.

Where Growers and Juice Sellers Stand

Alico is a Florida-based citrus grower and landowner. A grower's Revenue depends on fruit Volume as well as price, and prices received are often linked to juice markets. A smaller crop does not necessarily help a grower, because if its own fruit volume falls, revenue can drop even when prices rise. Disease, hurricanes and contract terms with processors matter as much as the futures price.

Coca-Cola sells Minute Maid and other juice brands and buys orange juice rather than producing oranges. Higher juice costs can pressure margins unless offset by pricing, hedging or mix, although juice is a small part of its wider beverage portfolio. Lower futures prices help the buyer and hurt the grower, so the two companies are exposed in opposite ways.

A Thin Market

Orange juice futures trade in smaller volumes than major commodities, so relatively modest orders can move the price. That helps explain why daily moves such as Friday's 3.38% drop can be large without a single clear trigger.

Juice Watch: First Notice Day, USDA Reports and Brazil's Harvest

The calendar is busy. First notice day for the November contract is 2 November and the last trading day is 9 November. The USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report is due on 10 November, although it has no orange juice table. The next cold-storage report is due on 24 November and the next USDA citrus forecast on 12 January 2027.

Prices could firm if Florida or Brazilian crop estimates are cut further, if damaging weather hits growing regions or if Warehouse stocks fall. They could weaken if harvests are larger, if inventories stay high or if retail demand is weak.