Key Highlights

  • London No. 5 white sugar futures were quoted at US$504.10 per metric ton, up US$1.50, or 0.30%, in delayed trading.
  • Raw sugar was 18.43 cents per pound on September 29, down 0.72% and up 11.01% over a year.
  • The white premium over raw sugar is roughly US$98 per metric ton on indicative quotes with different timestamps.
  • Market data cites Thai output down at least 17% and EU production down 19% in 2026-27.

The benchmark is the ICE Futures Europe London No. 5 white sugar contract, priced in US dollars per metric ton with a contract size of 50 metric tons. Market data showed the front continuous series (LSUc1) at US$504.10 per metric ton, up US$1.50 or 0.30%, with an intraday range of US$498.60 to US$510.20 and a 52-week range of US$375.80 to US$566.80. The quote carried no visible timestamp and the price is delayed, so it is not an official settlement.

White sugar is refined sugar, and it is different from the raw sugar futures quoted in New York in cents per pound. London prices are in dollars per metric ton, so the two are not directly comparable without conversion. Confectionery maker The Hershey Company (NYSE:HSY) is exposed through its sugar costs.

Raw sugar as a cross-check

Market data showed raw sugar at 18.43 on September 29, 2026, down 0.72% on the day, up 3.46% over a month and 11.01% over a year. The unit label is confusing, but a level of 18.43 fits the New York raw sugar contract in US cents per pound.

Converting, 18.43 cents per pound is roughly US$406 per metric ton, using about 2,204.6 pounds per metric ton. That leaves London white sugar around US$98 per metric ton above raw sugar. This is only indicative, because the two quotes have different and partly unknown timestamps and different delivery months. The gap represents the refining margin, sometimes called the white premium.

Why the white premium matters

The spread between white and raw sugar shows how profitable refining is. When the premium widens, refiners in the Middle East, Europe and elsewhere have more incentive to buy raw sugar and sell white sugar, which can lift raw demand. When it narrows, refiners may cut back.

For users of the London contract, this means the price of white sugar reflects raw sugar, freight, refining costs and regional demand together. A move in London that is not matched in New York usually signals a change in refining economics or physical availability, not simply a change in global cane supply.

What the sources say is driving prices

Market data says supply worries are supporting prices, citing weather disruption in Asia and Europe and a possible global deficit in 2026-27. It quotes Thai output down at least 17%, EU production down 19% in 2026-27, and Brazilian sugar shipments down 33% year on year in August. It also says India faces below-normal monsoon rainfall.

Drivers behind the price move

Sugar is influenced by the ethanol link in Brazil, where mills choose between sugar and ethanol depending on relative returns, and by the dollar. A July market report noted record fund long positions in London white sugar and an emerging El Niño risk.

Listed companies and their exposure

Associated British Foods owns British Sugar and, historically, African sugar operations through Illovo. It is a producer and refiner within a diversified group that also includes retail and food businesses, so sugar is only one driver of earnings.

Tate & Lyle makes sweeteners and specialty food ingredients. It is a processor and consumer rather than a raw sugar producer, and its results depend more on volumes and product mix than on sugar futures.

Rogers Sugar refines cane and beet sugar in Canada. Its raw sugar costs and refined sales prices are largely managed through contracts and hedging, which can smooth results against futures moves.

The Hershey Company uses sugar as an input to confectionery. Higher sugar costs add to input pressure, though cocoa is usually the larger issue.

Growers benefit from higher prices, while confectioners and beverage groups prefer lower ones.

What could strengthen or weaken the outlook

Supportive factors would include further weather damage to Asian, European or Brazilian crops, low export availability, strong ethanol economics in Brazil, and a weaker dollar. Confirmation of the reported deficits by independent bodies would also matter.

Weakening factors would include improved rainfall in India and Thailand, a strong Brazilian crush, larger Indian exports, and a stronger dollar. Funds that are heavily long can sell quickly if sentiment turns, which makes moves larger.

Unica Reports, Monsoon Progress and the Contract Cycle for White Sugar

Watch fortnightly Unica reports on Brazilian Center-South output, Indian government decisions on exports and ethanol diversion, International Sugar Organization estimates, and monsoon progress.

Contract rolls also matter. London No. 5 futures have delivery months in March, May, August, October and December, and continuous series switch when the front month expires. One data series labels its contract as November 2026, which does not match the standard cycle.