Key Highlights

● December corn futures settled at 502.25 cents, or $5.02 a bushel, on October 1, 2026, up 1.5 cents.

● USDA put September 1 corn stocks at 2.1 billion bushels, up 35% from a year earlier and a seven-year high.

● China plans tariff cuts on US wheat, corn and sorghum, but implementation awaits legal procedures and demand growth is slow.

● Nutrien kept retail adjusted EBITDA guidance at $1.75 billion to $1.95 billion, citing robust grain and oilseed demand.

December corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade settled at 502.25 cents a bushel, or $5.02, on Thursday, October 1, 2026, up 1.5 cents. The small gain followed a sharp fall the previous session, after USDA reported far larger stocks than analysts expected. Nutrien (NYSE:NTR), the fertilizer and farm input supplier, and Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE:ADM), the processor, are the main listed names exposed.

A Small Bounce After a Sharp Fall

The December contract (ZCZ26) ended Wednesday, September 30 at 500.75 cents, down 21.25, and the March contract closed that day at 515.50 cents, so the curve still slopes upward. September 2027 settled at 508.50 cents, only 7.75 cents above December, a shallow carry.

December touched a six-week low of 498.25 cents before the overnight recovery, and Thursday’s settlement is Wednesday’s close plus 1.5 cents. A delayed quote later slipped to 498.67 cents. Corn is about 3.9% lower on the month and roughly 18% higher on the year.

The Stocks Report Surprise

The clearest cause is the USDA quarterly stocks report of September 30. It put September 1 corn stocks at 2.1 billion bushels, up 35% from a year earlier, against a trade estimate of 1.918 billion, a seven-year high, and was called bearish for corn. It reflects an all-time high 2025 harvest of nearly 17 billion bushels, and an analyst said the market did not get the yield reduction it was calling for. One outlet reported the surprise triggered liquidation of a large fund long position.

Demand signals were mixed. Ethanol output fell to its lowest weekly level since late January, while Gulf corn basis firmed on export demand, with US No. 2 yellow corn quoted at $5.58 to $5.66 a bushel.

On trade, China said on September 29 it would cut tariffs on US wheat, corn and sorghum, pending legal procedures, but China’s slower economy is dampening appetite for imports. Remnants of Hurricane Polo brought heavy rain, with the Midwest expected to dry from the weekend, and harvest was 18% complete in late September, roughly in line with history. The market had priced in a smaller crop, and the stocks number forced a repricing.

Nutrien, ADM and the Corn Chain

Corn matters to processors and ethanol makers as a raw material, and to input suppliers through planted area.

Nutrien, headquartered in Saskatoon, sells fertilizer and farm inputs rather than grain. Its second-quarter release said management expects robust grain and oilseed demand and firmer North American crop prices to support input demand, and it kept retail adjusted EBITDA guidance at $1.75 billion to $1.95 billion. Lower corn prices could weigh on grower affordability and on planting decisions for 2027, though Nutrien did not say so.

ADM said in its second-quarter 2026 release that finalized 2026 and 2027 Renewable Fuel Standard volumes and elevated global energy prices supported ethanol and biodiesel margins, and that corn operations benefited from improved margins linked to policy incentives. It raised 2026 adjusted guidance to $5.15 to $5.60 a share. Cheaper corn could help processing margins if ethanol and sweetener prices hold.

Yield, Rain and Chinese Demand Risks

A smaller yield in USDA’s October crop estimate would tighten the balance sheet and could lift prices, and persistent rain that delays harvest or lowers quality is another route, though harvest pace is near average. If tariff relief becomes firm Chinese purchase commitments, export demand would improve, and firmer ethanol grind would also lift demand.

Ample supplies are the downside. Further fund selling is possible if prices fall through the six-week low, a large yield estimate would add to the pressure, and weak Chinese demand growth and a slow start to export sales are further risks.

USDA Crop Progress on Mondays tracks harvest pace, and weekly export sales arrive on Thursdays. WASDE and crop production follow on Friday, October 9 at 12:00 ET, and the next WASDE is due on Tuesday, November 10. Details and timing of China’s tariff cuts, weekly ethanol output and weekly fund positioning data will also guide prices.