Key Highlights

  • Cocoa futures traded at USD 5,607.88 per tonne, up about 4.22 percent daily but still near their lowest level since July 27.
  • Cocoa is down roughly 9.15 percent on a monthly basis and 9.39 percent year over year.
  • ICE cocoa stocks reached a 2.25 year high of 3,481,504 bags as of September 30.
  • Ivory Coast cocoa shipments for the current season totaled 2.18 million metric tons through September 27, 2026, up 19.8 percent from the prior year.

A Large Surplus Weighs on Near Term Prices

Cocoa futures eased toward USD 5,100 per tonne, their lowest since July 27, pressured by ample Supply following a large global surplus in the 2025 and 2026 season. This surplus marks a notable shift from the severe shortages that characterized cocoa markets in recent years, when supply disruptions from West Africa drove prices to historic highs.

Rising inventories have added to the downward pressure, with ICE cocoa stocks reaching a 2.25 year high of 3,481,504 bags as of September 30. This substantial inventory build suggests the market has moved decisively from a position of Scarcity toward one of relative abundance, a shift that appears to be weighing heavily on the forward price outlook even as the metric shows a daily gain.

Ivory Coast Shipments Point to a Stronger Harvest

At the same time, government data showed Ivory Coast's cocoa shipments totaled 2.18 million metric tons for the current season, running from October 1, 2025, to September 27, 2026, up 19.8 percent from the same period a year earlier. As the world's largest cocoa producer, Ivory Coast's substantially higher shipment volumes provide strong confirmation of the improved supply conditions reflected in rising global inventories.

This combination of record high exchange stocks and significantly increased shipments from the dominant producing nation suggests the current surplus is being driven by genuine production recovery in West Africa rather than Demand destruction or other factors, a distinction that could matter for how durable the current price weakness proves to be.

The Medium Term Outlook Carries More Uncertainty

The medium term outlook is less favorable, however, with West African crop prospects facing increased weather risks in the 2026 and 2027 season, including those associated with El Nino. Early estimates for the next season are far from comfortable, with forecasts for Ivory Coast pointing to production of around 1.8 million metric tons, well below the roughly 2.2 million metric tons expected in 2025 and 2026.

Should these early production estimates for the coming season prove accurate, the current period of ample supply and low prices could prove relatively short lived, with the market potentially needing to price in renewed tightness well before the next harvest cycle begins. This dynamic creates a bifurcated outlook, with near term price weakness driven by current surplus conditions set against a less certain and potentially more challenging supply picture further out.

Looking Ahead

Cocoa futures have fallen to their lowest level since July as a substantial global surplus and record high exchange inventories reflect a strong recovery in West African production this season. Whether this price weakness persists may depend significantly on how accurately early, less favorable production estimates for the 2026 and 2027 season hold up as the next harvest cycle approaches. The sharp contrast between this season's surplus and next season's more cautious outlook suggests cocoa markets could remain volatile as the industry transitions between these two supply environments.