Key Highlights

  • Black Rock Coffee Bar shares are trading up 3.42% at $9.06 versus a prior close of $8.76.
  • Third quarter Revenue rose 29.7% to $66.8 million.
  • Same-store sales rose 5.8%, or 16.6% on a two-year basis.
  • Full-year revenue guidance of $255 million to $257 million was reaffirmed.
  • Store openings for 2026 were raised to 40 from 38.

Black Rock Coffee Bar (NASDAQ:BRCB) is trading up 3.42% at $9.06 after third quarter results showed fast growth and a reaffirmed full-year outlook. The Scottsdale, Arizona company operates drive-thru coffee bars and went public in September 2025.

Quarter Results

Revenue rose 29.7% to $66.8 million, and same-store sales rose 5.8%, or 16.6% over two years, against some of the toughest comparisons of the year. Pricing added 2.4% and check growth about 1%. Store-level Margin was 28.9%, and adjusted EBITDA grew 22%, 500 basis points better than the prior quarter. Revenue growth outpaced EBITDA growth because of public company costs, new store Investment including record California openings, and labor for extended hours.

Fourth Quarter Expectations

Management expects the fourth quarter to be the strongest of the year for same-store sales and transactions, with adjusted EBITDA growth above 30%. Drivers include lapping prior-year public company costs, better opening processes and lessons from afternoon and evening dayparts. Fourth quarter store-level margin should be similar to the third quarter, and the full-year margin similar to 2025's 29.2%.

Guidance

Full-year guidance was reaffirmed at revenue of $255 million to $257 million, up 27%, mid-single-digit same-store sales growth and adjusted EBITDA of $34 million to $35 million, up 24% to 27%. Capital spending is now $47 million to $48 million including tenant allowances.

Store Growth

Openings for 2026 are now expected at 40, up from 38, with 35 already open. California openings should rise from five this year to 15 to 20 in 2027, and management sees a path to 1,000 stores by 2035. The 2026 class costs about $800,000 per store versus $700,000 to $750,000 expected earlier, and the added units will add little to 2026 revenue.

Analyst View

Three analysts are bullish and two neutral, with an average target of $14 and a range of $9 to $20. The stock trades in a 52-week range of $6.11 to $25.20.

Fourth Quarter Delivery Decides the Next Move

The shares have fallen far from their highs, so the fourth quarter has to show the same-store acceleration management describes. Investors will watch whether adjusted EBITDA growth tops 30%, whether higher per-store costs weigh on returns and how California openings perform.

Fourth quarter results are the next marker.