Key Highlights

  • Iran's top security official said on November 11, 2026 that Tehran will not allow enriched nuclear material to leave the country and warned of consequences if the US launched new strikes.
  • Iran also denied that it was in talks with Washington and said the Strait of Hormuz will stay shut until its demands, including sanctions relief and an end to the naval blockade, are met.
  • Brent crude rose 1.39% to settle at USD 92.76 a barrel and WTI gained 0.57% to USD 86.53, a day after Brent had briefly dipped below USD 90 for the first time since August.
  • The United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO), which tracks front-month WTI futures, gives investors direct exposure to how the deadlock is priced in coming sessions.

What Tehran Said

The comments hardened a position that has blocked progress in efforts to end the conflict. The United States has sought the removal of Iran's stock of enriched nuclear material as a core condition of any agreement. Iran's security chief said that material will not leave the country and warned of consequences for any new US strikes. Tehran also denied that negotiations were taking place and set out the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz: relief from sanctions and the end of the US-led naval blockade of Iranian ports. By early Thursday, November 12, talks were described as deadlocked on enriched material, sanctions, the blockade and Hormuz. The messaging contrasts with signals from Washington earlier in the week, when the US President said the war could end fairly soon and that Iran was militarily effectively over, and held off on new strikes.

How Oil Priced the Deadlock

Crude had been sliding on expectations that Supply would keep rising. On Tuesday, November 10, Brent fell 1.17% to USD 91.49 and briefly traded below USD 90, its lowest since August, while WTI settled at USD 86.04. The trigger for that drop was the President's decision to hold off on strikes, plus evidence that Gulf producers have restored output. On Wednesday, the Iranian comments reversed part of the move, with Brent up 1.39% to USD 92.76 and WTI up 0.57%. The rebound was limited because production from Saudi Arabia and Iraq is back to pre-war levels and OPEC+ output rose by about 2.04 million barrels a day in October. US crude remains nearly 20% below its October peak. For the United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO), that leaves prices caught between a supply recovery and an unresolved chokepoint risk.

What Investors Should Watch

The Strait of Hormuz is the key variable. As long as Iran keeps it closed, tanker routes and insurance costs stay elevated and Gulf exports depend on alternative pipelines and terminals. Any sign of a deal on enriched material would likely push crude lower quickly, while a resumption of strikes could add a risk premium back. Investors should also watch OPEC+ supply decisions, US inventory data and the dollar, which has strengthened as US rate expectations rose. Higher US interest rates tend to weigh on Commodity Demand and on speculative positioning in oil futures. For holders of the United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO), roll costs between futures contracts also matter when the curve shifts. The near-term range set this week, from just under USD 90 to about USD 93 for Brent, is the reference band to watch for a breakout in either direction.

Where Things Stand

Iran's refusal on November 11, 2026 to let enriched nuclear material leave the country, its denial of talks and its insistence that Hormuz stays shut lifted Brent 1.39% to USD 92.76. The rebound was capped by restored Saudi and Iraqi output and a 2.04 million barrel a day rise in OPEC+ production. For the United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO), the outlook now hinges on whether talks restart or strikes resume.