Key Highlights

  • Merlin (NASDAQ:MRLN) traded at USD 1.22 in intraday trading on November 13, 2026, up 26.52%, on about 21.7 million shares, extending a sharp rise on November 12.
  • Third quarter Revenue rose to USD 3.46 million from USD 1.92 million a year earlier, and cash and short-term investments were USD 161.6 million with no debt.
  • The company reported GAAP Net Income of USD 73.8 million, but only because of a USD 103.6 million non-cash gain on Warrant liabilities, and its operating loss was USD 31.5 million.
  • In the same week it won a USD 8.9 million USSOCOM C-130J task order and a USD 500,000 USAFRICOM contract for an autonomous casualty evacuation demonstration.

Contracts and Results Arrived in One Week

Merlin builds autonomous flight software, called Merlin Pilot, for existing manned military and civil aircraft. Three announcements in three days drove the move. On November 10 it received a USD 8.9 million task order from US Special Operations Command for the integration phase of its system on the C-130J transport, under a contract vehicle with a total ceiling of more than USD 100 million. On November 11 it won a USD 500,000 contract from US Africa Command for an autonomous casualty evacuation demonstration on a Cessna 208B, planned for early fiscal 2027 in Morocco. After the close on November 12 it reported third quarter results. The stock traded as much as about 57% higher during the November 12 session, a figure taken from intraday data, and was up about 35% before the open on November 13. Together the awards show the technology moving from demonstrations toward funded integration on a front-line military aircraft, which is the progression investors in defence autonomy companies look for.

Reading the Third Quarter Numbers

Revenue for the quarter was USD 3.46 million, up from USD 2.2 million in the second quarter and USD 1.92 million a year earlier, bringing nine-month revenue to USD 6.66 million. The headline net income of USD 73.8 million, or USD 0.37 per diluted share, is misleading on its own, because it came from a USD 103.6 million non-cash gain on warrant liabilities. The operating loss widened to USD 31.5 million from USD 16.6 million, and the adjusted EBITDA loss was USD 24.1 million, an improvement on USD 27.8 million in the second quarter. For the first nine months the net loss was USD 75.0 million. The Balance Sheet is the stronger part of the story. Cash and short-term investments were USD 161.6 million, down from USD 183.9 million at June 30, and the company had no debt, against USD 12.8 million at the end of 2025. Management said it expects 2027 operating expenses to be meaningfully below 2026 levels and that its plan is funded into 2029 without new Capital raises.

Valuation and What Comes Next

At USD 1.22 the shares give the company a Market Value of about USD 123.3 million, which is less than its cash balance at September 30. That gap reflects the burn rate, since the company used about USD 22 million in the third quarter, and the dilution history, with shares outstanding rising to about 101.7 million from about 69.7 million at the end of 2025. Warrant liabilities of USD 26.5 million remain, and their value will swing with the share price, so future quarters may show large non-cash gains or losses. The company was formerly a special purpose Acquisition company and was renamed Merlin in March, and the stock trades well below its 52-week high of USD 17.00. Investors will watch the pace of cash use, whether the C-130J programme moves to later phases, and whether civil certification work turns into revenue. The funding statement removes near-term financing risk, provided spending falls as guided.

Where Things Stand

Merlin (NASDAQ:MRLN) rose 26.52% to USD 1.22 on November 13, 2026 after third quarter revenue reached USD 3.46 million and it won USSOCOM and USAFRICOM contracts. Net income came from a non-cash warrant gain, but USD 161.6 million of cash, no Debt and funding into 2029 give it room to execute.