GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG)

GQG Partners Inc is an Australian-based global investment management firm. The company provides a range of investment strategies primarily focused on equity markets, catering to institutional clients, wealth managers, and individual investors.

Recommendation Rationale - SELL at AUD 2.020

• Facing Resistance: The stock has crossed its Resistance 1 level recommended on 13 January 2025; therefore, it can face resistance at the current levels.
• Reliance on Management Fees: GQG's revenue is heavily dependent on management fees, which are based on the assets under management (AUM). While this model is stable, it also means the company is more vulnerable to fluctuations in AUM.
• December Net Outflows: The company experienced a net outflow of US$0.2 billion in December month, which is a negative indicator compared to the positive inflows seen earlier in the year.
• Global Market and Geopolitical Risks: As a global asset manager, GQG is exposed to various geopolitical and economic risks. Market disruptions, geopolitical tensions, currency fluctuations, or global recessions could affect its international operations and performance.

GQG Daily Chart

(Source: REFINITIV; Analysis by Kalkine Group)

Valuation Methodology: Price/Cash Flow Approach (FY Dec'25E) (Illustrative)

PNV is expected to trade at a slight premium compared to its peers considering the growth in Funds Under Management in FY24, and Net Operating Income and Net Revenue in H1 FY24. For conducting valuation, the following peers have been considered: Eagers Automotive Ltd (ASX: APE), Navigator Global Investments Ltd (ASX: NGI), and COG Financial Services Ltd (ASX: COG).

Considering the market uncertainties, and risks associated, the share price can witness some correction at the current levels before moving higher. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 2.020, as of 28 January 2025 at 3.04 PM, AEDT.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 28 January 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Note 5: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.