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Kalkine IPO Report

Should You Subscribe to the IPO of Kali Metal Limited?

Nov 17, 2023

The Offer

Company Overview

Kali Metals Limited (ACN 653 279 371), an unlisted Australian public company incorporated on August 31, 2021, in Western Australia, is actively engaged in mineral exploration, particularly focusing on lithium. The company holds various projects, including the DOM’s Hill Project, Marble Bar Project (subject to completing the Tenement Sale Agreement with Kalamazoo), Pear Creek Project, and the Higginsville Lithium Rights at the Higginsville Project tenements (subject to finalizing the Share Sale Agreement and Mineral Rights Agreements with the Karora Group). Additionally, Kali Metals possesses the Jingellic Project and Tallangatta Project in southern New South Wales and north-eastern Victoria, with the option to earn a 100% interest in the MEG Lithium Rights at EL8958 held by MEG. This comprehensive portfolio reflects the company's strategic presence in key lithium exploration regions in Western Australia and eastern Australia.

Key Highlights

Primary Offering:

The offering document outlines the proposition of issuing a minimum of 48 million shares at an offer price of AUD 0.25, with the intention of raising at least AUD 12 million. Alternatively, the offering could encompass up to 60 million shares at an offer price of AUD 0.25, aiming to raise a maximum of AUD 15 million.

Use of proceeds:

Project Highlights:

Pilbara Projects: DOM’s Hill, Marble Bar, and Pear Creek Projects exhibit lithium prospectivity in the Pilbara Craton, with significant exploration activities planned.

Higginsville Project: In Eastern Yilgarn, Western Australia, Kali Metals plans exploration for lithium-bearing pegmatites, leveraging the region's known pegmatite occurrences.

New South Wales and Victoria Projects: The Jingellic and Tallangatta Projects in the Lachlan Fold Belt region are early-stage exploration plays for LCT pegmatites. Kali Metals aims to explore areas with historical tin and tantalum occurrences for lithium potential.

Lithium Market:

Lithium's Role in Batteries: Lithium is a crucial element in modern battery technology, and its demand has significantly risen due to the ongoing development and adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles, aligned with the global shift towards renewable energy sources.

Growing Demand from Electric Vehicles: The increasing commitment of over 20 countries and 70 city governments to achieve 100% zero-emission vehicle targets or phase out internal combustion engine vehicles by 2050 is expected to drive the demand for lithium. It is projected that more than 70% of the total lithium demand by 2030 will be fueled by the expanding electric vehicle market.

Concentration of Lithium Resources and Market Control: Lithium resources are concentrated in a limited number of countries, primarily Australia, Chile, China, and Argentina. The global lithium market is dominated by the five largest producers, including SQM, with only a handful of companies controlling the majority of mine output.

Diversity in Lithium Production Sources: Lithium is extracted from either brines or hard-rock sources, and each producing country, except China, specializes in one of these sources. South American countries like Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia focus on brine production, while Australia specializes in hard-rock lithium extraction.

Anticipated Growth in Lithium Demand: The demand for lithium is expected to surge from around 0.72 million metric tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2023 to over 3 million metric tonnes of LCE in 2030. Depending on the success of exploration and project development, Kali Metals has the potential to play a vital role in ensuring the long-term lithium supply to support the global transition to clean energy.

Dividend policy:

The company anticipates refraining from dividend payments in the foreseeable future, emphasizing the prioritization of utilizing cash reserves for exploration and development endeavors across its projects. Any decision regarding dividends will solely rest with the Directors and will be contingent upon factors such as the availability of distributable earnings, the company's operating results and financial condition, future capital requirements, and other pertinent business considerations, particularly when progressing to development and production at the projects. It is important to note that the company cannot provide assurance regarding the payment of dividends or the presence of franking credits, and no dividend reinvestment plan is currently in place.

Financial Highlights (Expressed in AUD):

  • Pre-revenue company: The Company does not currently have any operational revenue and is not expected to until the Projects are successfully built, and production starts. The Company is in mine evaluation stage, pending the future development and commencement of operations and revenue earning from its proposed projects.

Key Management Highlights

Risk Associated (High)

Key Risks and Mitigation in Tolu Project:

  • Limited Operating History: Having been incorporated in August 2021, Kali Metals possesses a brief operating history, exposing it to the inherent risks associated with early-stage mineral exploration companies. While the company leverages experienced personnel to navigate these risks, the attainment of commercial viability remains uncertain.
  • Funding and Future Capital Requirements: Due to the absence of operational revenue, Kali Metals may be compelled to secure equity capital or access debt funding for its projects. The uncertainty surrounding future borrowing and capital-raising activities, influenced by market conditions, could potentially impact the company's ability to adequately finance its operations.
  • Nature of Mineral Exploration and Mining: The process of mineral exploration demands substantial expenditures without a guarantee of revenue. Unforeseen external factors beyond the company's control may impede exploration and development initiatives, introducing uncertainty regarding the success of mining operations.
  • Arrangements with the Karora Group: The intricate agreements with the Karora Group introduce the potential for defaults or breaches, posing a risk of termination, disputes, or litigation. Such outcomes could adversely affect the financial position and operational stability of Kali Metals.
  • Operational Matters: Kali Metals' operations are susceptible to various external influences, encompassing challenges in exploration, technical complications, and environmental incidents. These factors have the potential to impact the company's financial performance and operational efficiency.
  • Mineral Resource Risk: The absence of reported Mineral Resources by Kali Metals and the uncertainty surrounding future exploration activities may deviate from the current understanding. The inherent imprecision in resource estimates and the possibility of inaccuracies in geological interpretations constitute intrinsic risks.
  • Title and Grant Risk: The process of granting and renewing mining tenements is subject to regulatory procedures and conditions. Potential delays, objections, or failures to fulfill these conditions may exert an impact on the company's operations and financial standing.

Conclusion

Kali Metals strategically positions itself to capitalize on the increasing demand for lithium, driven by the surge in electric vehicle adoption and renewable energy initiatives globally. The company's project portfolio, especially in lithium-rich regions like the Pilbara, reflects a proactive approach to securing a foothold in key exploration areas. Additionally, the anticipated growth in lithium demand from approximately 0.72 million metric tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2023 to over 3 million metric tonnes of LCE in 2030 presents a significant market opportunity for Kali Metals. The IPO's structure, with an offer price of AUD 0.25 and a targeted fundraising range of AUD 12-15 million, aligns with the company's financing needs for exploration and development.

Despite the promising market conditions, the investment in Kali Metals comes with inherent risks. The company, having been incorporated in August 2021, has a limited operating history, making the achievement of commercial viability uncertain. Moreover, the absence of operational revenue and reliance on future equity capital or debt funding introduce financial uncertainties. The nature of mineral exploration involves significant expenditures with no guaranteed revenue, and external factors beyond the company's control may impede operations. Complex agreements with the Karora Group and potential operational challenges add further layers of risk. Kali Metals' operational efficiency and financial performance are susceptible to challenges in exploration, technical complications, and environmental incidents.

Hence, given the financial performance of the company, incurred net losses, lithium market, company’s projects, and associated risks “Kali Metals Limited (KM1)” IPO seems “Neutral" at the IPO price.


Disclaimer-

Kalkine Equities LLC provides general information about companies and their securities. The information contained in the reports, including any recommendations regarding the value of or transactions in any securities, does not take into account any of your investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Kalkine Equities LLC is not registered as an investment adviser in the U.S. with either the federal or state government. Before you make a decision about whether to invest in any securities, you should take into account your own objectives, financial situation and needs and seek independent financial advice. All information in our reports represents our views as at the date of publication and may change without notice.

Kalkine Media LLC, an affiliate of Kalkine Equities LLC, may have received, or be entitled to receive, financial consideration in connection with providing information about certain entity(s) covered on its website.