Section 1: Company Overview and Fundamentals

1.1 Company Overview:

Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM) is a gold company and a producer of copper, silver, zinc, and lead. The Company’s portfolio of assets and prospects is anchored in mining jurisdictions in North America, South America, Australia, and Africa. The Company's segments are each of its 12 mining operations and its 38.5% interest in Nevada Gold Mines (NGM).

Kalkine’s Dividend Income Report covers the Company Overview, Key positives & negatives, Investment summary, Key investment metrics, Top 10 shareholding, Business updates and insights into company recent financial results, Key Risks & Outlook, Price performance and technical summary, Target Price, and Recommendation on the stock.

Stock Performance:

• The stock has corrected by 8.64% in the last three months as well as by 11.71% in the past six months.
• The stock is leaning towards the lower band of its 52-week range of USD 52.76 and 52-week low price of USD 29.42, with the current price near a decent support range of USD 30.00-USD 33.00, from where the price has taken a support in the past.
• The price is currently below both its short-term (50-day) SMA and long-term (200-day) SMA, with the current RSI of 55.38, recovering from oversold levels.

1.2 The Key Positives, Negatives, and Investment summary

1.3 Top 10 shareholders:

The top 10 shareholders together form ~35.02% of the total shareholding, signifying diverse shareholding. The Vanguard Group, Inc. and BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A. are the biggest shareholders, holding the maximum stake in the company at ~10.26% and ~5.56%, respectively.

1.4 Consistent dividend payments with impressive dividend yield:

In 2023, dividends totaling USD1.4 billion were disbursed to shareholders. Adhering to its established operational framework, the Board of Directors announced a dividend of USD 1.00 per share for the fiscal year 2023, indicating a judicious strategy characterized by a sustainable foundational dividend and an additional payout set at the midpoint of the annualized range of USD 1,700 per ounce. Consequently, this decision yields a dividend rate of 2.95% based on the most recent closing price. This approach underscores the company's commitment to providing consistent returns to its shareholders while maintaining financial prudence and flexibility within its dividend policy.

1.5 Key Metrics

NEM has experienced a positive trajectory in its top-line revenue and profitability figures over the past five years. Additionally, the company has demonstrated effective cost management across various operational levels can be seen through the higher profitability metrics.

1.6 Gold Commodity Analysis:

On Wednesday, the price of gold hovered around USD2,160 per ounce, following a decline of over 1% in the preceding session. This downward trend was attributed to the release of US inflation data, which surpassed expectations, contributing to uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's timeline for interest rate reductions. Data from Tuesday revealed a headline inflation rate of 3.2% in February, surpassing both forecasts and January's 3.1%, while the core rate moderated slightly to 3.8% from 3.9%, yet remained above the consensus of 3.7%. Both measures experienced a monthly increase of 0.4%. Despite these developments, the market persisted in anticipating a more than 60% probability of rate cuts by the Fed commencing in June, despite widespread expectations that the central bank will maintain interest rates at their current level in March and May. Investors are now turning their attention to forthcoming US retail sales figures and producer inflation data later in the week, seeking further insights into the economic landscape.

Section 2: Business Updates and Financial Highlights

2.1 Recent Updates:

The below picture gives an overview of the recent updates:

 2.2 Insights of FY23:

Section 3: Key Risks and Outlook:

Section 4: Stock Recommendation Summary:

4.1 Price Performance and Technical Summary:

Stock Performance:

• The stock has corrected by 8.64% in the last three months as well as by 11.71% in the past six months.
• The stock is leaning towards the lower band of its 52-week range of USD 52.76 and 52-week low price of USD 29.42, with the current price near a decent support range of USD 30.00-USD 33.00, from where the price has taken a support in the past.
• The price is currently below both its short-term (50-day) SMA and long-term (200-day) SMA, with the current RSI of 55.38, recovering from oversold levels.

4.2 Fundamental Valuation

Valuation Methodology: Price/Earnings Per Share Multiple Based Relative Valuation

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macroeconomic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is March 13, 2024. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: The report publishing date is as per the Pacific Time Zone.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

 Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

 Stop-loss: It is a level to protect against further losses in case of unfavorable movement in the stock prices.